Will Inflection AI be a Major AI Lab by 2025?
25
185
1k
2025
19%
chance

Resolves yes if Inflection is commonly perceived as being in the same tier as OpenAI, DeepMind, and Anthropic on January 1, 2025.

Inherently subjective, but factors to be considered are: funding, technical breakthroughs, new foundation models, mainstream products, mentions alongside other top labs in media, and its CEO's presence alongside other major lab CEOs at major meetings with e.g. world leaders, plus anything else that seems pertinent.

Resolves no if the criteria are never met, or if they're met, but Inflection goes bust or gets absorbed by a pre-existing top lab before the close date. If inflection gets bought by a then-not-major lab/player (e.g. Apple), the market resolves yes if the criteria have otherwise been met.

I won't trade in this market.

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predicts YES

why is this market increasing right now? any news?

predicts YES

@uzpg I don't think it's increased much in the last month? I haven't heard any huge news since my lesswrong post