Will xAI AI be a Major AI Lab by 2025?
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122
Ṁ41k
Dec 31
38%
chance

Resolves yes if xAI is commonly perceived as being in the same tier as OpenAI, DeepMind, and Anthropic on January 1, 2025.

Inherently subjective, but factors to be considered are: funding, technical breakthroughs, new foundation models, mainstream products, mentions alongside other top labs in media, and its CEO's presence alongside other major lab CEOs at major meetings with e.g. world leaders, plus anything else that seems pertinent.

Resolves no if the criteria are never met, or if they're met, but xAI goes bust or gets absorbed by a pre-existing top lab before the close date. If xAI gets bought by a then-not-major lab/player (e.g. Apple), the market resolves yes if the criteria have otherwise been met.

I won't trade in this market.

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bought Ṁ5 NO

Next year maybe. They have the resources and some crossover from Tesla.

@MattReardon If the bet were resolved today, would it be yes or no?

opened a Ṁ300 YES at 77% order

Resolves YES (not really). Even the explicitly high bar of @RickRadewagen has been met.

https://x.com/lmsysorg/status/1827041269534879784

bought Ṁ50 NO from 76% to 73%

Does Meta meet this bar?

@AndrewMcKnight Surely Meta surpasses Anthropic…

yes – they're now in the top 3 model creators, behind only openai and google https://x.com/lmsysorg/status/1823599819551858830

@0xSMW LMSYS ranking, especially as Goodhart's Law comes into effect, is a poor proxy for "funding, technical breakthroughs, new foundation models, mainstream products, mentions alongside other top labs in media" etc.

Nope

imo, a major AI lab has to rank high in LMSYS or lead in some other important benchmark. I will only bet if the resolution criteria are more objective.
It's easy to imagine Elon creating a lot of buzz and getting invited to meetings, while the product/research is lame.

they are satisfied but xAI fails to materialize due to bankruptcy or acquisition by an established competitor prior to the deadline https://spacebarclickergame.io/

hell yeah

https://x.com/xai/status/1721027348970238035

predicts YES

What it looks like: https://x.com/tobyphln/status/1721053802235621734