Will OpenAI "merge and assist" by end of 2026?
32
863
650
2026
14%
chance

OpenAI charter has a clause where it commits to join forces with a value-aligned organization and assist (with alignment and such), if this other org has some level of good chance of getting AGI soon. Refer to OpenAI charter for details.

Resolves to YES if by end of 2026 OpenAI (publicly) merges under another organization in the spirit of this clause.

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bought Ṁ15 of YES

Large disagreement with Metaculus (which resolves earlier than this)

sold Ṁ192 of NO

@JacobPfau Metaculus is much less doomy than Manifold. I hope they're right.

bought Ṁ200 of NO

I realized that betting NO here is mostly a bet against <5yr timelines.

"If we're losing the race for AGI we will offer to join up with the winners and steal their stuff"
Too cynical?

We wanted flying cars and we got “sorry I’m large language model with …”

We wanted moral philosophy and we got sbf-simpistry

We wanted open AI and instead we got communist global world government merger cartels of work hall

monitors

[fourth one redacted]