Large disagreement with Metaculus (which resolves earlier than this)

@JacobPfau Metaculus is much less doomy than Manifold. I hope they're right.

I realized that betting NO here is mostly a bet against <5yr timelines.

"If we're losing the race for AGI we will offer to join up with the winners and steal their stuff"
Too cynical?

We wanted flying cars and we got “sorry I’m large language model with …”

We wanted moral philosophy and we got sbf-simpistry

We wanted open AI and instead we got communist global world government merger cartels of work hall

monitors

[fourth one redacted]