Will Anthropic remain independent by EOY 2024?
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2025
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Resolves to No if Anthropic is bought or absorbed by some other company working on AI (e.g., Alphabet, Microsoft, OpenAI, ...) by end of 2024, or if some entity like this gets a majority share.

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Anthropic is a public benefit corporation. I imagine this makes it impossible for shareholders to pressure them into getting acquired, in which case this would only happen if Anthropic leadership decides it's a good idea.

predicts YES

"If you don't get acquired you will not have enough compute and OpenAI will get to AGI first and Claude will be sad."

predicts YES

@GustavoLacerda I'm not sure how much of a difference them being a public benefit corporation actually makes. My impression is that it's not a huge legal difference - I'd think it would be hard to use that as the main lever.

That said, most of their "unaligned funding" probably came in the last round (and maybe from the owners of their FTX stock). It seems very possible the Anthropic owners still have majority control.

I think "majority control" isn't enough though. If the choice is between not having enough compute/employees to be competitive, and being acquired, I could see them going with the latter.

Does it resolve N/A if Anthropic goes bankrupt / otherwise shuts down but isn't sold off?