🦠 Infectious disease epidemiology

1k
Will an America die of H5N1 in 2024?NO
1k
Will there be documented human-to-human transmission of H5N1 (bird flu) before 2026?18% chance
360
Supposing H5N1 spreads to humans, which antiviral drug that exists today (Feb 2023) will prove most effective in preventing fatalities?
40%Other
14%
No effective antivirals
45%
Oseltamivir
0.7%
Peramivir
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2k
Will H5N1 have spread to multiple pig farms in 2024?
Resolved
NO
Before April 1st, 2024
Resolved
NO
Before June 1st, 2024
Resolved
NO
Before September 1st, 2024
Resolved
NO
Before December 31st, 2024
Are you currently hedged against an H5N1-induced market crash?POLL
Yes
No
90
Vox Future Perfect 2024: More than 20 million poultry birds will be culled due to bird flu?YES
2k
Will H5N1 have spread to multiple pig farms in 2024?
Resolved
NO
Before April 1st, 2024
Resolved
NO
Before June 1st, 2024
Resolved
NO
Before September 1st, 2024
Resolved
NO
Before December 31st, 2024
1k
Will there be documented human-to-human transmission of H5N1 (bird flu) before 2026?18% chance
300
If the WHO declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern for H5N1, will they declare an H5N1 pandemic within a year?33% chance
200
What will be the total number of H5N1 human cases reported by the CDC in the US at the end of 2024? [0-200]66
1k
Will we find conclusive evidence of ongoing cow-to-cow H5N1 transmission this year?YES
1.5k
How many cases of measles will the CDC report in the US in 2024?
100%99.0%
251-500
0.1%
50 or fewer
0.4%
51-250
0.2%
501-750
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10k
Will there be a large-scale bird flu outbreak in the US in 2024? (100+ cases)NO
115
Will an emerging infectious disease be the top BBC Health item on Jan 1, 2025?NO
130
Will the mutated version of GX/2017, GX_P2V(short_3UTR), related to the COVID-19 virus, infect a human before 2025?NO
1k
Was COVID a "mass disabling event"?85% chance
1k
Will there be another Pandemic outbreak declared before 2024 US Elections?NO
1k
When will tuberculosis kill less than 1 million people a year?
5%
2025 or earlier
2%
2026
2%
2027
11%
2028
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1.5k
By when will Malaria be Eradicated?
75%
2060
57%
2050
38%
2045
28%
2040
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1k
Which disease will be eradicated next in humans?
18%
Polio
0.7%
Yaws
80%
Guinea worm
0.8%
Malaria
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