🦠 Infectious disease epidemiology

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Will an America die of H5N1 in 2024?19% chance
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Will there be documented human-to-human transmission of H5N1 (bird flu) before 2026?83% chance
Basic
Supposing H5N1 spreads to humans, which antiviral drug that exists today (Feb 2023) will prove most effective in preventing fatalities?
40%
Other
14%
No effective antivirals
45%
Oseltamivir
0.7%
Peramivir
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Will H5N1 have spread to multiple pig farms in 2024?
6%
Before September 1st, 2024
64%
Before December 31st, 2024
Resolved
NO
Before April 1st, 2024
Resolved
NO
Before June 1st, 2024
Are you currently hedged against an H5N1-induced market crash?POLL
Yes
No
Basic
Vox Future Perfect 2024: More than 20 million poultry birds will be culled due to bird flu?71% chance
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Will H5N1 have spread to multiple pig farms in 2024?
6%
Before September 1st, 2024
64%
Before December 31st, 2024
Resolved
NO
Before April 1st, 2024
Resolved
NO
Before June 1st, 2024
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Will there be documented human-to-human transmission of H5N1 (bird flu) before 2026?83% chance
Basic
If the WHO declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern for H5N1, will they declare an H5N1 pandemic within a year?81% chance
Basic
What will be the total number of H5N1 human cases reported by the CDC in the US at the end of 2024? [0-200]72
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Will we find conclusive evidence of ongoing cow-to-cow H5N1 transmission this year?YES
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How many cases of measles will the CDC report in the US in 2024?
0.1%
50 or fewer
3%
51-250
96%
251-500
0.5%
501-750
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Premium
Will there be a large-scale bird flu outbreak in the US in 2024? (100+ cases)9% chance
Basic
Will an emerging infectious disease be the top BBC Health item on Jan 1, 2025?27% chance
Basic
Will the mutated version of GX/2017, GX_P2V(short_3UTR), related to the COVID-19 virus, infect a human before 2025?8% chance
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Was COVID a "mass disabling event"?85% chance
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Will there be another Pandemic outbreak declared before 2024 US Elections?NO
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When will tuberculosis kill less than 1 million people a year?
4%
2025 or earlier
2%
2026
2%
2027
10%
2028
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By when will Malaria be Eradicated?
76%
2060
48%
2050
41%
2040
37%
2045
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Which disease will be eradicated next in humans?
58%
Polio
2%
Yaws
35%
Guinea worm
3%
Malaria
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