Each date resolves YES if Malaria has been declared eradicated by the WHO (or an equivalent declaration by an appropriate organization of similar status if N/A) before Jan 1st of that year.
With regards to ambiguity of resolution my intent with this market is: "the time at which there has been a period of no recent Malaria deaths and a reasonable expectation of no further deaths in future, as declared by an authoritative organisation" and I will seek the most objective way of defining that.
The WHO's declaration of Smallpox eradication in 1980 would be analogous.
1,000
3.00In the view that powerful AI (not even necessarily AGI) will be a big force in the world in the next 10 years, and given that I intend to have as much power over/via AI as I can manage for the sake of the safety of humanity (including my friends and family), and given that I've already donated 10s of thousands of dollars to eliminating Malaria.... I personally will absolutely destroy Malaria by 2035 if no one else beats me to it, barring large scale catastrophe.
@jgyou I'm inclined to say only falciparum and Vivax, but given the long timescales perhaps this should be conditional on there not being another species responsible for significant deaths?
I'm open to suggestions at this stage, but the intent of the market is something like "the time at which there has been a period of no recent Malaria deaths and a credible expectation of no further deaths in future, as declared by an authoritative organisation"