Will the mutated version of GX/2017, GX_P2V(short_3UTR), related to the COVID-19 virus, infect a human before 2025?
5
29
Ṁ396Ṁ130
2025
9%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Link to New York Post for context:
https://nypost.com/2024/01/16/news/covid-19-strain-kills-100-of-infected-mice-in-chinese-lab-study/
Link to paper: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.01.03.574008v1
Abstract from the paper:
SARS-CoV-2-related pangolin coronavirus GX_P2V(short_3UTR) can cause 100% mortality in human ACE2-transgenic mice, potentially attributable to late-stage brain infection. This underscores a spillover risk of GX_P2V into humans and provides a unique model for understanding the pathogenic mechanisms of SARS-CoV-2-related viruses.
This market will resolve to yes if, by 12/31/24, at least 1 human has been confirmed to have been infected with the mutated version of GX/2017, GX_P2V(short_3UTR).
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