Will the mutated version of GX/2017, GX_P2V(short_3UTR), related to the COVID-19 virus, infect a human before 2025?
Basic
5
Ṁ426Jan 1
8%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Link to New York Post for context:
https://nypost.com/2024/01/16/news/covid-19-strain-kills-100-of-infected-mice-in-chinese-lab-study/
Link to paper: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.01.03.574008v1
Abstract from the paper:
SARS-CoV-2-related pangolin coronavirus GX_P2V(short_3UTR) can cause 100% mortality in human ACE2-transgenic mice, potentially attributable to late-stage brain infection. This underscores a spillover risk of GX_P2V into humans and provides a unique model for understanding the pathogenic mechanisms of SARS-CoV-2-related viruses.
This market will resolve to yes if, by 12/31/24, at least 1 human has been confirmed to have been infected with the mutated version of GX/2017, GX_P2V(short_3UTR).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be a new large-scale virus that infects more than 100,000,000 unique people before 2030?
48% chance
[Metaculus] Will there be reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 before 2026?
24% chance
[Metaculus] Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 globally before 2025?
19% chance
Will a human-created pathogen infect at least 10,000 people by 2030?
34% chance
Will a global pandemic of a novel infectious disease, similar to COVID-19, occur by 2030?
33% chance
Will SARS-CoV-2 be eradicated by 2100?
53% chance
Will there be an Mpox pandemic by 2026?
18% chance
Will an engineered virus cause a pandemic before 2035?
29% chance
Will Lorxus fall ill with COVID by the end of 2024?
27% chance
Will a model of chatGPT state lab-leak theory is the origin of covid 19 before 2030?
73% chance