Inspired by this post, linked to by ACX: https://open.substack.com/pub/donotpanic/p/mass-disabling-event-denial?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=f99j5

Resolves to my best interpretation of expert consensus in March 2030. I will be receptive to commenters making the case for a particular consensus. I will try very hard to resolve YES or NO, but if there really doesn't seem to be a consensus, I will resolve PROB to 50%. These criteria may be tweaked in the first month if commenters have feedback.

I will not bet in this market.