Was COVID a "mass disabling event"? | Manifold

Was COVID a "mass disabling event"?

🦠 Infectious disease epidemiology #Science #COVID #Public Health

16

130

Ṁ480

Ṁ420

2030

81%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Inspired by this post, linked to by ACX: https://open.substack.com/pub/donotpanic/p/mass-disabling-event-denial?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=f99j5

Resolves to my best interpretation of expert consensus in March 2030. I will be receptive to commenters making the case for a particular consensus. I will try very hard to resolve YES or NO, but if there really doesn't seem to be a consensus, I will resolve PROB to 50%. These criteria may be tweaked in the first month if commenters have feedback.

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Yes, but cases don't appear to be growing. ONS UK reports "any symptoms > 12 weeks" at 1.9% this March, and it was 1.77% last year February

bought Ṁ30 YES

Yes to mass disabling event, but the author of that blog sees it as a means to push a political narrative, so take what's written there with a pinch of salt

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