Was COVID a "mass disabling event"?

Plus

Ṁ864

2030

85%

chance

ALL

Inspired by this post, linked to by ACX: https://open.substack.com/pub/donotpanic/p/mass-disabling-event-denial?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=f99j5

Resolves to my best interpretation of expert consensus in March 2030. I will be receptive to commenters making the case for a particular consensus. I will try very hard to resolve YES or NO, but if there really doesn't seem to be a consensus, I will resolve PROB to 50%. These criteria may be tweaked in the first month if commenters have feedback.

I will not bet in this market.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#COVID

#Science

#Public Health

Get

1,000

and

3.00

5 Comments

16 Holders

27 Trades

Sort by:

Could already resolve to yes

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/359883911_Updated_MECFS_prevalence_estimates_reflecting_post-COVID_increases_and_associated_economic_costs_and_funding_implications

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41579-022-00846-2

bought Ṁ7 YES

Add to that the National Academy of Science Medicine and Engineering report

Maybe. Market doesn't resolve early, though. I'll wait until close date and try and ascertain consensus at that time.

Yes, but cases don't appear to be growing. ONS UK reports "any symptoms > 12 weeks" at 1.9% this March, and it was 1.77% last year February

bought Ṁ30 YES

Yes to mass disabling event, but the author of that blog sees it as a means to push a political narrative, so take what's written there with a pinch of salt

Related questions

Related questions