MANIFOLD

How many cases of measles will the CDC report in the US in 2024?

Ṁ1.5kṀ17k

resolved Jan 24

100%99.0%

251-500

0.1%

50 or fewer

0.4%

51-250

0.2%

501-750

0.1%

751-1000

0.1%

1001-1250

0.1%

1251 or greater

Will be settled based on the number of measles cases in the US for 2024 as published by the CDC here:

https://www.cdc.gov/measles/cases-outbreaks.html

Market context

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1,000

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Resolution should move to https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/?CDC_AAref_Val=https://www.cdc.gov/measles/cases-outbreaks.html

131 as of May 2, looks to not be accelerating atm

121 as of April 12, interesting pricing on 750+ options

Would require a lot of acceleration

bought Ṁ10 YES

As of March 28, 2024, a total of 97 measles cases were reported by 18 jurisdictions: Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New York City, New York State, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Washington.

bought Ṁ1,000 NO

@ScottSupak 50 or fewer can resolve NO

@Tripping Oh nvm it's a dependent market

bought Ṁ8 YES

As of March 7, 2024, a total of 45 measles cases were reported by 17 jurisdictions: Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New York City, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Washington.

As of February 29, 2024, a total of 41 measles cases were reported by 16 jurisdictions: Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New York City, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Washington.