Obviously the rules are the rules and you shouldn't change them now, but "Reported transmission must have occurred after this market was created for it to resolve YES." seems kinda silly to me, and I say that as the second-biggest no holder. I think if transmission is proven to have happened much later, it should count.

@Mana Intent behind this rule was to prevent someone lawyering with a 2006 documented case, this market is intended to track the latest strain that emerged this decade

Metaculus says 27%, that seems way off to me though
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26328/human-transmission-of-h5n1-before-2026/

@ahalekelly metaculus may be wrong

I will note that there is little incentive to prove a case zero until there is an incipient epidemic.

Just one clarification not made yet, doesn't have to be USA, anywhere in the world counts?

Potentially, but not yet confirmed: 8 contacts of an index case had symptoms

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/27/health/bird-flu-cluster-missouri.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare&sgrp=c-cb

@Siebe 😐

@SaviorofPlant yeah I know, and health authorities are doing a really bad job with the data (which greatly affects this market)

I just hope that the fatality rate AND morbidity rate (think long covid) would actually be really low

Health officials do not believe one infected the other because they developed symptoms simultaneously, and testing showed similar patterns in immune responses.

“They are all suggestive of positive infection caused by a common exposure, not person-to-person infection,” said Demetre C. Daskalakis, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases.

The source of exposure remains unclear in both people.

Antibody screening ruled out H5N1 infection in five health-care workers who developed respiratory symptoms after encountering the patient. The sixth had previously tested negative. Health officials previously said those workers may have been infected with common respiratory viruses, such as the coronavirus.

-Washington Post

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/h5n1-virus-in-latest-human-case-has-mutated-officials-say/

Please clarify the resolution criteria. Does this require sustained transmission? What's the closing date? Jan 1st 2026, Dec 31st 2026?

@Siebe There just needs to be one proven case of transmission between humans. Closes Jan 1.