Will there be documented human-to-human transmission of H5N1 (bird flu) before 2026?
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I will not trade on this market after November 13, 2024 to avoid any conflicts of interest in resolution.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Potentially, but not yet confirmed: 8 contacts of an index case had symptoms
@SaviorofPlant yeah I know, and health authorities are doing a really bad job with the data (which greatly affects this market)
I just hope that the fatality rate AND morbidity rate (think long covid) would actually be really low
Please clarify the resolution criteria. Does this require sustained transmission? What's the closing date? Jan 1st 2026, Dec 31st 2026?
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