This market will stay open until a H5N1 PHEIC is declared (in which case it will resolve within a year) or H5N1 is eradicated (in which case it resolves N/A).
Feb 6, 11:16am: If the WHO declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern for H5N1, will they declare a H5N1 pandemic within a year? → If the WHO declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern for H5N1, will they declare an H5N1 pandemic within a year?
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What would it mean for the WHO to "declare a pandemic"? To my knowledge, that's, like, not a thing.
@AlexDemarsh It doesn't happen often, but they've done it at least twice in the past for swine flu and COVID-19.
@NcyRocks sure, they used the word "pandemic" in press conferences, but that's very different from the PHEIC mechanism (which is a formal declaration under international law, and carries obligations for member states).
I'm being a bit pedantic, I'll just interpret this as equivalent to "the WHO publicly uses the word 'pandemic' to describe H5N1 within a year of PHEIC declaration".
@AlexDemarsh I've just noticed that the swine flu pandemic designation was a proper change of classification under an old system (moving from phase 5 to 6), while the COVID one was, as you point out, not as much of an official thing and more of a change in language. I expect they'll continue to be very careful about using that word, but yeah, maybe 'declare' isn't the right word.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?