Will credible future reports claim that H5N1 was spreading [edit Dec 5:] has spread to multiple pigs in more than 1 pig farm, in any country, at the following dates?
Dates refer to when the virus was spreading, not when reports are published.
I will resolve 4 months after each date.
I will not bet in this market.
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First pig detected positive. Doesn't count as "spreading" just yet
@Siebe I assume the option for September can resolve NO then, right?
Edit: I guess you said you're waiting four months, nvm.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 based on current evidence it would indeed resolve no, but yeah I'm waiting 4 months.
It would resolve YES if it's detected in multiple pigs in more than 1 farm, not requiring pig-to-pig transmission (though I wish I had been clearer about whether that last one was necessary!)
@traders I realize I did not specify WHEN I would resolve this, so I am settling on 4 months after the date (unless multiple people protest this)
Pigs [n=9] are highly susceptible to but do not transmit [n=6] mink-derived highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/22221751.2024.2353292#d1e506