Will H5N1 have spread to multiple pig farms in 2024? | Manifold

Will H5N1 have spread to multiple pig farms in 2024?

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32

Ṁ5808

Dec 31

1D

1W

1M

ALL

3%

Before April 1st, 2024

10%

Before June 1st, 2024

26%

Before September 1st, 2024

43%

Before December 31st, 2024

Will credible future reports claim that H5N1 was spreading in more than 1 pig farm, in any country, at the following dates?

Dates refer to when the virus was spreading, not when reports are published.

I will not bet in this market.

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Pigs [n=9] are highly susceptible to but do not transmit [n=6] mink-derived highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/22221751.2024.2353292#d1e506

This market is still completely off, given the 4th includes the previous 3

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