Will we find conclusive evidence of ongoing cow-to-cow H5N1 transmission this year?

1kṀ2417

resolved Aug 2

Resolved

YES

ALL

Public Health

Epidemiology

Get

1,000

to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ105
2		Ṁ30
3		Ṁ30
4		Ṁ23
5		Ṁ8

People are also trading

Will there be documented human-to-human transmission of H5N1 (bird flu) before 2026?

10% chance

Will there be at least 100,000 confirmed human cases of H5N1 in the US in 2025?

4% chance

In November, will Manifold think that H5 bird flu was transmitting human-to-human prior to February 12th?

6% chance

Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed human cases of H5N1 in the US in 2025?

7% chance

Will there be at least 1000 confirmed human cases of H5N1 in the US in 2025?

7% chance

Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed human deaths due to H5N1 in the US in 2025?

3% chance

Will there be 10k or more human cases of H5N1 in the US by the end of 2025?

5% chance

Will there be at least 1000 confirmed human deaths due to H5N1 in the US in 2025?

6% chance

Will there be more than 1,000 confirmed human cases of H5N1 bird flu in the US by the end of 2025?

6% chance

Will 1000 herds of livestock be infected by H5N1 by the end of 2025 in the USA?

Sort by:

At this point, all the experts I had discussions with found the evidence conclusive.

Mainly:

Association between movements and outbreaks
Sustained outbreaks in locations without obvious contact with poultry farms
Matching sequencing

I would propose to resolve YES early unless someone has an objection.
I will let this sit for a week before resolving. And I'm also OK re-opnening it if folks feel this is unresolved. Sorry for the kind of vague question.

Opinion: As livestock move around the country, so does H5N1. The U.S. needs real-time tracking of livestock movements

FDA Update (May 1st)

Preprint: Emergence and interstate spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) in dairy cattle

SirCryptomind boughtṀ50YES

H5N1 bird flu was circulating in dairy cows for four months before it was detected, USDA scientists say - CNN 05/02/2024

Worobey says the study means H5N1 is “now seemingly well-entrenched in the dairy cattle population in the country” and might be something we have to deal with for years to come.