Will there be a large-scale bird flu outbreak in the US in 2024?

Defined as 100+ human cases as reported on https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/avian-flu-summary.htm

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The Wikipedia page breaks down cases/deaths by country and year. Only one country/year is over 100 cases (Egypt-2015: 136 cases, 39 deaths). The next highest seems to be Vietnam-2005 (61 cases, 19 deaths). Indonesia-2006 (55 cases, 45 deaths) and Indonesia-2007 (42 cases, 37 deaths) should likely also be over 100, assuming that many cases were missed and the CFR should be closer to 30%.

But overall it seems much more likely to end up with a handful of cases (as the US has currently) than >100. So I'm confused why this is so high.



This seems high, IMO.
The base rate is lower. The bird flu has been active in flocks nearly continuously for the past 20 years.
We have a human case of H5N1, but growth is stagnant in commercial flocks

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