Defined as 100 human cases or more, as reported on https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): Market will be resolved based on the CDC weekly report published approximately 5 days after the end of 2024.
1,000
3.00@Bayesian gonna sit on my current position, I think the actual case count far exceeds 100 but I don’t want to increase my exposure to CDC footdragging on reporting or incompetence around testing
@jgyou is this whatever number is on the website at the end of the year, or will you wait some amount of time to see if the update the yearly totals?
@Sketchy I will wait for the weekly report which is usually 5 days later. Schedule might vary with new year
We should’ve exceeded 100 cases weeks ago. We’ve only tested 2139 samples for H5N1 for all 50 states in 2024 so far. We have a test positivity rate of 2.7% at 57 cases. That test count tripled in just the last 6 weeks, by the way. So up until October we’d only tested 746 samples for H5N1. There’s definitely a lot of undetected transmission occurring. I’m glad testing is finally increasing; we’ll certainly see an uptick in counts over the next few weeks.
Possible human-human transmission happening in MO https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/27/health/bird-flu-cluster-missouri.html
Longer time horizon here BTW https://manifold.markets/jgyou/will-there-be-a-largescale-bird-flu-810463cb11ad
1 human died— Just south of US, in Mexico, and h5n2 (strain in poultry) instead of h5n1 ( strain circulating in dairy cows in US). No known exposure, but underlying medical issues.
https://time.com/6986026/mexico-death-tied-to-bird-flu-strain-never-before-seen-in-people/
The Wikipedia page breaks down cases/deaths by country and year. Only one country/year is over 100 cases (Egypt-2015: 136 cases, 39 deaths). The next highest seems to be Vietnam-2005 (61 cases, 19 deaths). Indonesia-2006 (55 cases, 45 deaths) and Indonesia-2007 (42 cases, 37 deaths) should likely also be over 100, assuming that many cases were missed and the CFR should be closer to 30%.
But overall it seems much more likely to end up with a handful of cases (as the US has currently) than >100. So I'm confused why this is so high.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_spread_of_H5N1#Human_cases
@jgyou here’s a link to cdc regarding the case in michigan
This seems high, IMO.
The base rate is lower. The bird flu has been active in flocks nearly continuously for the past 20 years.
We have a human case of H5N1, but growth is stagnant in commercial flocks
