Will there be a large-scale bird flu outbreak in the US in 2024?
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2025
38%
chance

Defined as 100+ human cases as reported on https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/avian-flu-summary.htm

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The Wikipedia page breaks down cases/deaths by country and year. Only one country/year is over 100 cases (Egypt-2015: 136 cases, 39 deaths). The next highest seems to be Vietnam-2005 (61 cases, 19 deaths). Indonesia-2006 (55 cases, 45 deaths) and Indonesia-2007 (42 cases, 37 deaths) should likely also be over 100, assuming that many cases were missed and the CFR should be closer to 30%.

But overall it seems much more likely to end up with a handful of cases (as the US has currently) than >100. So I'm confused why this is so high.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_spread_of_H5N1#Human_cases

reposted

This seems high, IMO.
The base rate is lower. The bird flu has been active in flocks nearly continuously for the past 20 years.
We have a human case of H5N1, but growth is stagnant in commercial flocks

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