🦠 Infectious disease epidemiology

1k
Will an America die of H5N1 in 2024?NO
1k
Will there be documented human-to-human transmission of H5N1 (bird flu) before 2026?27% chance
360
Supposing H5N1 spreads to humans, which antiviral drug that exists today (Feb 2023) will prove most effective in preventing fatalities?
40%Other
14%
No effective antivirals
45%
Oseltamivir
0.7%
Peramivir
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2k
Will H5N1 have spread to multiple pig farms in 2024?
1.8%
Before December 31st, 2024
Resolved
NO
Before April 1st, 2024
Resolved
NO
Before June 1st, 2024
Resolved
NO
Before September 1st, 2024
Are you currently hedged against an H5N1-induced market crash?POLL
Yes
No
90
Vox Future Perfect 2024: More than 20 million poultry birds will be culled due to bird flu?YES
2k
Will H5N1 have spread to multiple pig farms in 2024?
1.8%
Before December 31st, 2024
Resolved
NO
Before April 1st, 2024
Resolved
NO
Before June 1st, 2024
Resolved
NO
Before September 1st, 2024
1k
Will there be documented human-to-human transmission of H5N1 (bird flu) before 2026?27% chance
300
If the WHO declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern for H5N1, will they declare an H5N1 pandemic within a year?33% chance
200
What will be the total number of H5N1 human cases reported by the CDC in the US at the end of 2024? [0-200]66
1k
Will we find conclusive evidence of ongoing cow-to-cow H5N1 transmission this year?YES
1.5k
How many cases of measles will the CDC report in the US in 2024?
100%99.0%
251-500
0.1%
50 or fewer
0.4%
51-250
0.2%
501-750
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10k
Will there be a large-scale bird flu outbreak in the US in 2024? (100+ cases)NO
115
Will an emerging infectious disease be the top BBC Health item on Jan 1, 2025?NO
130
Will the mutated version of GX/2017, GX_P2V(short_3UTR), related to the COVID-19 virus, infect a human before 2025?NO
1k
Was COVID a "mass disabling event"?85% chance
1k
Will there be another Pandemic outbreak declared before 2024 US Elections?NO
1k
When will tuberculosis kill less than 1 million people a year?
5%
2025 or earlier
2%
2026
2%
2027
11%
2028
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1.5k
By when will Malaria be Eradicated?
75%
2060
57%
2050
38%
2045
28%
2040
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1k
Which disease will be eradicated next in humans?
22%
Polio
0.7%
Yaws
76%
Guinea worm
0.8%
Malaria
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