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🦠 Infectious disease epidemiology

á¹€1k
Will an America die of H5N1 in 2024?
NO
á¹€1k
á¹€1k
Will there be documented human-to-human transmission of H5N1 (bird flu) before 2026?
NO
á¹€1k
á¹€360
Supposing H5N1 spreads to humans, which antiviral drug that exists today (Feb 2023) will prove most effective in preventing fatalities?
40%Other
14%
No effective antivirals
45%
Oseltamivir
0.7%
Peramivir
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á¹€360
á¹€2k
Will H5N1 have spread to multiple pig farms in 2024?
Resolved
NO
Before April 1st, 2024
Resolved
NO
Before June 1st, 2024
Resolved
NO
Before September 1st, 2024
Resolved
NO
Before December 31st, 2024
á¹€2k
Are you currently hedged against an H5N1-induced market crash?
POLL
No
Yes
á¹€90
Vox Future Perfect 2024: More than 20 million poultry birds will be culled due to bird flu?
YES
á¹€90
á¹€2k
Will H5N1 have spread to multiple pig farms in 2024?
Resolved
NO
Before April 1st, 2024
Resolved
NO
Before June 1st, 2024
Resolved
NO
Before September 1st, 2024
Resolved
NO
Before December 31st, 2024
á¹€2k
á¹€1k
Will there be documented human-to-human transmission of H5N1 (bird flu) before 2026?
NO
á¹€1k
á¹€300
If the WHO declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern for H5N1, will they declare an H5N1 pandemic within a year?
33% chance
á¹€300
á¹€200
What will be the total number of H5N1 human cases reported by the CDC in the US at the end of 2024? [0-200]
66
á¹€200
á¹€1k
Will we find conclusive evidence of ongoing cow-to-cow H5N1 transmission this year?
YES
á¹€1k
á¹€1.5k
How many cases of measles will the CDC report in the US in 2024?
100%99.0%
251-500
0.1%
50 or fewer
0.4%
51-250
0.2%
501-750
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á¹€1.5k
á¹€10k
Will there be a large-scale bird flu outbreak in the US in 2024? (100+ cases)
NO
á¹€10k
á¹€115
Will an emerging infectious disease be the top BBC Health item on Jan 1, 2025?
NO
á¹€115
á¹€130
Will the mutated version of GX/2017, GX_P2V(short_3UTR), related to the COVID-19 virus, infect a human before 2025?
NO
á¹€130
á¹€1k
Was COVID a "mass disabling event"?
85% chance
á¹€1k
á¹€1k
Will there be another Pandemic outbreak declared before 2024 US Elections?
NO
á¹€1k
á¹€1k
When will tuberculosis kill less than 1 million people a year?
1.6%
2025 or earlier
1%
2026
3%
2027
10%
2028
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á¹€1k
á¹€1.5k
By when will Malaria be Eradicated?
75%
2060
57%
2050
41%
2045
28%
2040
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á¹€1.5k
á¹€1k
Which disease will be eradicated next in humans?
29%
Polio
0.8%
Yaws
68%
Guinea worm
1%
Malaria
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á¹€1k
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