Everyday Astronaut 2024 Predictions

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How many times will SpaceX launch Starship in 2024? (Everyday Astronaut 2024 Predictions)
100%98%
3 or 4
0.1%
2 or fewer
2%
5 or 6
0.4%
7 or more
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What's the furthest milestone we'll see Starship achieve in 2024? (Everyday Astronaut 2024 Predictions)
100%98%
Reentry of both stages
0.0%
No further progress
1.8%
Orbital Payload deploy
0.6%
Reuse of a booster
Basic
When will ULA launch their Vulcan rocket for the first time? (Everyday Astronaut 2024 Predictions)
100%99.5%
Jan 2024
0.2%
Feb 2024
0.2%
March or later 2024
0.1%
Not in 2024
Basic
Which rocket will reach orbit and deploy a meaningful payload first (not just a mass simulator)? Everyday Astronaut 2024
100%99.9%
Vulcan
0.0%
Starship
0.0%
New Glenn
0.0%
Ariane 6
Basic
How many lunar landers will successfully land on the moon in 2024? (Everyday Astronaut 2024 Predictions)
0.7%
0
1.4%
1
13%
2
85%
3 or more
Basic
When will Artemis 2 launch? (Everyday Astronaut 2024 Predictions)
100%98%
Not in 2024
0.9%
November 2024
1.3%
December 2024
Basic
When will Sierra Nevada Corp launch their Dream Chaser reusable spaceplane? (Everyday Astronaut 2024 Predictions)
100%93%
Not in 2024
0.9%
Q1 2024
1.2%
Q2 2024
4%
2nd Half 2024
Basic
What's the furthest milestone we'll see Rocket Lab achieve with their Neutron rocket? (Everyday Astronaut 2024)
100%75%
None of the above
13%
Static Fire
10%
Full Integration WDR
1.7%
Launch
Basic
How many orbital launch attempts will we see in 2024 around the world? (Everyday Astronaut 2024 Predictions)
100%45%
251-275
5%
Less than 222
7%
222-250
44%
More than 275
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When will Boeing fly humans on Starliner? (Everyday Astronaut 2024 Predictions)
100%99.0%
1st half 2024
0.5%
Q3 2024
0.1%
Q4 2024
0.4%
Not in 2024
Basic
When will Arianespace launch their Ariane 6 rocket? (Everyday Astronaut 2024 Predictions)
100%99.4%
2nd Half 2024
0.1%
Q1 2024
0.2%
Q2 2024
0.3%
Not in 2024
Basic
When will the Polaris Program launch "Polaris Dawn", the first EVA with SpaceX's Dragon Capsule? Everyday Astronaut 2024
100%99.0%
Q3 2024
0.0%
Q2 2024
0.9%
Q4 2024
0.0%
Not in 2024
Basic
When will Blue Origin launch their New Glenn rocket? (Everyday Astronaut 2024 Predictions)
100%99.0%
Not in 2024
0.1%
Q1 2024
0.3%
Q2 2024
0.5%
2nd Half 2024
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How many times will SpaceX launch their Falcon 9 / Falcon Heavy in 2024? (Everyday Astronaut 2024 Predictions)
100%98.8%
121-135
0.0%
Less than 96
0.1%
96-120
1.2%
136 or more
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