How many orbital launch attempts will we see in 2024 around the world? (Everyday Astronaut 2024 Predictions)
Basic
7
Ṁ118resolved Jan 1
100%45%
251-275
5%
Less than 222
7%
222-250
44%
More than 275
(there were 222 launch attempts in 2023)
This market is based on a poll posted on X by Tim Dodd the Everyday Astronaut.
If the result is ambiguous, I may use Everyday Astronaut's followup video, if there is one, as a source for resolution.
See the full set of markets on this dashboard.
Update 2024-31-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Updated
If the result is ambiguous, the resolution will use the following sources:
Everyday Astronaut's followup video, if available
Wikipedia's Orbital launch statistics for 2024 (link)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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