(there were 222 launch attempts in 2023)

This market is based on a poll posted on X by Tim Dodd the Everyday Astronaut.

If the result is ambiguous, I may use Everyday Astronaut's followup video, if there is one, as a source for resolution.

See the full set of markets on this dashboard.

• Update 2024-31-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Updated

  • If the result is ambiguous, the resolution will use the following sources:

  • Everyday Astronaut's followup video, if available

  • Wikipedia's Orbital launch statistics for 2024 (link)