Note: I modified the options for this one, turning "Fullscale archimedes test" into "None of the above". The original poll options seemed like they didn't cover the case of none of those milestones being achieved.

This market is based on a poll posted on X by Tim Dodd the Everyday Astronaut.

If the result is ambiguous, I may use Everyday Astronaut's followup video, if there is one, as a source for resolution.

See the full set of markets on this dashboard.