There are (at least) 4 missions currently slated to land on the moon.
This market is based on a poll posted on X by Tim Dodd the Everyday Astronaut.
If the result is ambiguous, I may use Everyday Astronaut's followup video, if there is one, as a source for resolution.
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SLIM landed "successfully" by some metrics. (Soft landing but wrong orientation, so the lander's solar panels aren't generating power).
What are the landers that are likely to attempt in 2024? Here are the ones I'm aware of:
- JAXA's SLIM lander on January 19 (Success chance is 76% according to this market: https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-japans-moon-lander-land-succes)
- Astrobiotic's Peregrine on February 23 (Success chance of 37% here: https://manifold.markets/Sailfish/will-astrobotic-technologys-peregri)
- Intuitive Machine's IM-1 NET February as well as a possible IM-2/IM-3 later in the year Success chance is currently at 39% here: https://manifold.markets/Sailfish/will-intuitive-machines-im1-mission, IM-2/IM-3 have higher probabilities but I doubt they'll all launch this year)
- China's Chang'e 6 sometime this year (77% success here: https://manifold.markets/Sailfish/will-cnsas-change-6-mission-success)
Am I missing any?
@TimDuffy There's also Griffin/VIPER https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VIPER_(rover). Wikipedia says November 2024 but I have near zero faith in that date.