How many lunar landers will successfully land on the moon in 2024? (Everyday Astronaut 2024 Predictions)

280Ṁ1009

resolved Jan 3

ResolvedN/A

ALL

0.7%

1.4%

13%

85%

3 or more

There are (at least) 4 missions currently slated to land on the moon.

This market is based on a poll posted on X by Tim Dodd the Everyday Astronaut.

If the result is ambiguous, I may use Everyday Astronaut's followup video, if there is one, as a source for resolution.

See the full set of markets on this dashboard.

Update 2025-01-01 (PST): - If a follow-up video does not provide a definitive resolution, the market will be resolved as N/A. (AI summary of creator comment)

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Well, the video came out and it didn't give a definitive resolution https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r1eQOwkTuFE

How'd we do predicting 2024's spaceflight milestones?

On January 1st, 2024, I tweeted a set of polls and wanted to see how well we in the spaceflight community could predict what would happen in 2024... results ...

He said the answer could be 1 or could be 3, and ends with "inconclusive, I guess".

"Inconclusive" probably means this should resolve N/A. Anyone object to that?

If this went by my opinion, I would say that SLIM, IM-1, and the Chinese one were all successful, and the answer is "3 or more". But some of those successes are sufficiently ambiguous that I want to wait for Everyday Astronaut's followup video and use his answer.

SLIM landed "successfully" by some metrics. (Soft landing but wrong orientation, so the lander's solar panels aren't generating power).

What are the landers that are likely to attempt in 2024? Here are the ones I'm aware of:

- JAXA's SLIM lander on January 19 (Success chance is 76% according to this market: https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-japans-moon-lander-land-succes)
- Astrobiotic's Peregrine on February 23 (Success chance of 37% here: https://manifold.markets/Sailfish/will-astrobotic-technologys-peregri)
- Intuitive Machine's IM-1 NET February as well as a possible IM-2/IM-3 later in the year Success chance is currently at 39% here: https://manifold.markets/Sailfish/will-intuitive-machines-im1-mission, IM-2/IM-3 have higher probabilities but I doubt they'll all launch this year)
- China's Chang'e 6 sometime this year (77% success here: https://manifold.markets/Sailfish/will-cnsas-change-6-mission-success)

Am I missing any?

@TimDuffy There's also Griffin/VIPER https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VIPER_(rover). Wikipedia says November 2024 but I have near zero faith in that date.