AI Compute

How many H100 will NVIDIA sell in 2023?

100%31%

500k - 750k

0.4%

<100k

0.7%

100k - 250k

1.9%

250k - 500k

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#New Year's Resolutions 2024

When will Nvidia's GH200 "Grace Hopper" superchip be released.

0.5%

2023, August to September

1.3%

2023, October to December

60%

2024, January to June

19%

2024, July to December

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#Artificial Intelligence

Will a model be trained using at least as much compute as GPT-3 using AMD GPUs before Jan 1 2026?71% chance

#Technical AI Timelines

Will any chip maker other than NVIDIA, Intel, and AMD create accelerators for Deep Learning and be profitable by 2030?81% chance

Will Graphcore be a serious NVIDIA competitor?2% chance

#Semiconductors

Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?4% chance

#Computer hardware

Which of the following alt cloud GPU startups will have the highest valuation by EOY 2024?

50%

coreweave.com

11%

Runpod.io

9%

lambdalabs.com

8%

Fluidstack.io

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Will a large AI company (e.g. OpenAI) acquire an inference-focused AI chip compnay in the next 12 months?64% chance

At least one of the most powerful neural nets at end of 2026 will be trained using 10^27 FLOPs77% chance

#Machine Learning

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^27 FLOP in China before 2028?43% chance

GPT-5 trained with >=24k GPUs?81% chance

Will an entity be confirmed to have purchased at least 100,000 H100 GPUs before January 1st, 2024?YES

#Technical AI Timelines

End of pre-training era for language models: Will an LM fine-tune for more FLOPs than it is pre-trained for, before 202622% chance

#Technical AI Timelines

What will be the maximum achievable flop utilization on the next generation of Nvidia server chips?

1.1%

<30%

1.5%

30-40%

7%

40-50%

10%

50-60%

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Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?25% chance

By 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?57% chance

#Semiconductors