Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
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2030
31%
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bought Ṁ500 YES

Today

bought Ṁ100 YES at 31%
sold Ṁ22 YES

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-21/asml-tsmc-can-disable-chip-machines-if-china-invades-taiwan

ASML machines have remote kill switches in case of Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

Michael Studeman, recently retired Commander of the Office of Naval Intelligence and Director of Intelligence for the US Indo-Pacific Command, wrote an article saying that

"Xi’s most critical choices reflect a march to war... All strategic war preparation indicators are brightly lit."

https://warontherocks.com/2024/04/china-is-battening-down-for-the-gathering-storm-over-taiwan/?__s=v9qoijgke47g70218fdn

2 traders bought Ṁ40 YES

@SemioticRivalry

“Xi may not care overly much given the inescapable backsliding of his economy even in the absence of any war. In the coming years, he may conclude he has everything to gain and nothing to lose by waiting any longer.”

“…Xi’s age (70) matters. He only has ten reliable years of vitality to conduct a major operation and then lead China through the inevitable multi-year recovery from anticipated international retribution. Based on how Xi appears to be interweaving his legacy with assimilating Taiwan, it seems unlikely he would leave it up to a successor to absorb the forever glory of overseeing a long-sought unification and subsequently re-stabilizing China’s place in the world, a feat that could put Xi on par with Mao Zedong.”

This talk about motives and legacy at a dictators old age recall the same for Putin recently.

bought Ṁ10 YES at 25%
bought Ṁ5 NO at 25%
bought Ṁ15 NO

Ukraine demonstrates the fragility of modern day battle ships. A couple thousand remote-controlled kamikaze boats stand a good chance of instantly drowning any invasion attempt.

if one believed in the EMH, and one were looking for evidence that war is likely, one might expect to find something like this (of course this is not even close to monocausal)

3 traders bought Ṁ285 YES

@SemioticRivalry On the flipside TSMC is probably a pretty close proxy and still trades at a similar earnings multiple to 2020 (i.e. it isn't being significantly discounted)

Yeah I think the China foreign investment graph has approximately nothing to do with a potential invasion of Taiwan and much more to do with a long list of other factors.

@CameronHolmes But that's weird. The entire rest of the semiconductor industry has risen rapidly. TSM should be trading much higher now.

Here's a related market to try to figure out the effect of the 2024 US elections on this:

bought Ṁ920 of NO

The CCP is very cautious and risk averse. If it has a 40% chance of success it has a <10% chance of being attempted

predicts YES

"Chinese President Xi Jinping bluntly told President Joe Biden during their recent summit in San Francisco that Beijing will reunify Taiwan with mainland China but that the timing has not yet been decided, according to three current and former U.S. officials."

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/china/xi-warned-biden-summit-beijing-will-reunify-taiwan-china-rcna130087

bought Ṁ4 NO at 29%
bought Ṁ30 of NO

Surely there should be more movement of this after xi’s san fran trip with Biden

predicts YES

@GarrettBaker you aren't inclined to move it?

predicts YES

@GarrettBaker oh I see, you bought far more NO than your comment tag recognises

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@JoshuaWilkes With some hedging from similar markets

@GarrettBaker they always pretend to do things but that doesn't prevent them from setting up forces in a position where they can EASILY escalate with the slightest trigger
also read stalin's war, informative...
Didn't diplomats from the entente and central powers often talk right before WWI?

bought Ṁ10 of NO

I think it is unlikely to happen, because the occurrence of this event depends directly on two aspects of the situation, on the one hand, is China's domestic situation, if China's economic and social conditions in a short period of time to change drastically, China's leaders may choose to invade Taiwan and distract the attention of the domestic, at present China's political and economic relative stability, although encountered some economic problems, but not to the 2030 On the other hand, it is still the attitude of the U.S. If the U.S. always promises to intervene in the Taiwan Strait conflict by force, China's current military power is far from the U.S. (and it is unlikely to overtake the U.S. in the short term), so China's current threat to Taiwan is more a demonstration of a political gesture than a real move into action.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

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