Ukraine demonstrates the fragility of modern day battle ships. A couple thousand remote-controlled kamikaze boats stand a good chance of instantly drowning any invasion attempt.

China's Xi says nobody can stop 'family reunion' with Taiwan

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4547637-china-potential-taiwan-invasion-2027-us-admiral-warns/

if one believed in the EMH, and one were looking for evidence that war is likely, one might expect to find something like this (of course this is not even close to monocausal)

@SemioticRivalry On the flipside TSMC is probably a pretty close proxy and still trades at a similar earnings multiple to 2020 (i.e. it isn't being significantly discounted)

Yeah I think the China foreign investment graph has approximately nothing to do with a potential invasion of Taiwan and much more to do with a long list of other factors.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/26/opinion/taiwan-china-war-military.html?unlocked_article_code=1.Zk0.AVY-._bbocm4jqUL5&smid=url-share

Here's a related market to try to figure out the effect of the 2024 US elections on this:

The CCP is very cautious and risk averse. If it has a 40% chance of success it has a <10% chance of being attempted

"Chinese President Xi Jinping bluntly told President Joe Biden during their recent summit in San Francisco that Beijing will reunify Taiwan with mainland China but that the timing has not yet been decided, according to three current and former U.S. officials."

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/china/xi-warned-biden-summit-beijing-will-reunify-taiwan-china-rcna130087

Surely there should be more movement of this after xi’s san fran trip with Biden

@GarrettBaker you aren't inclined to move it?

@GarrettBaker oh I see, you bought far more NO than your comment tag recognises

@JoshuaWilkes With some hedging from similar markets

I think it is unlikely to happen, because the occurrence of this event depends directly on two aspects of the situation, on the one hand, is China's domestic situation, if China's economic and social conditions in a short period of time to change drastically, China's leaders may choose to invade Taiwan and distract the attention of the domestic, at present China's political and economic relative stability, although encountered some economic problems, but not to the 2030 On the other hand, it is still the attitude of the U.S. If the U.S. always promises to intervene in the Taiwan Strait conflict by force, China's current military power is far from the U.S. (and it is unlikely to overtake the U.S. in the short term), so China's current threat to Taiwan is more a demonstration of a political gesture than a real move into action.

I've added this question to
https://manifold.markets/dashboard/ww3

WW3?

Probably/hopefully very unlikely, but if WW3 would happen pre-singularity I think it could look very similar to now. With the war in the Ukraine, the situation in Gaza, the tensions around Taiwan, and the perceived weakness of the US, this seems like the most dangerous time for the world since the end of the cold war. I'm trying to collect questions here that would best signal moves to increased or decreased risk of WW3. (@Manifold: It would be nice to have a comment section and/or direct messages so that people could suggest good questions.)

Related Market:

Subsidized 10kM$ & boosted

32 military planes of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) completely encircled Taiwan during air operations, according to a Taipei complaint. It is the first time that the Chinese army has made this journey completely surrounding the island.

(https://twitter.com/descifraguerra/status/1695409942197313910?t=tDHg3S7CHNbyQdnZ7rx34Q&s=19)

I put big limits on the no side if anyone would like to fill them

The metaculus numbers imply a constant risk of about 3%/year which seems high considering they chose not to invade Taiwan every year for the past 70-odd consecutive years

@JonathanRay China is far more powerful and imperialistic now than it was 20 years ago, to say nothing of 70 years ago. They're perfectly happy biding their time, and as they continue to amass a world class military to rival the United States, the time is only getting better.

@JonathanRay They did fire artillery on Taiwan for the first 35 or so of those 70 years, but yeah, generally I agree.

@jonsimon China gdp growth forecasts keep getting revised downward. Now it looks like they will peak below the US, and they’ll stay a few tech levels behind the US too because the best minds don’t want to be in China, so that will impair their military buildup.

@jonsimon china isnt going to attack, they did this with the usa in 2021

@JonathanRay I agree with this. They cannot and will not ever be a place that imports the best and brightest. They will probably have to coerce the best Chinese to keep them from leaving. The Chinese miracle is over. It’s downhill from here.

@BTE you know china is flooding right? And the cpp made the flood happen

@Breadbrowser Yes I know about the flooding. What do you mean by the CCP causing it? You mean in the rural areas to save Beijing?

@BTE they made the flood waters soo where the cpp main place is doesn't get flooded

@BTE Here is a good video on it https://youtu.be/nxXJARgpuzo

@Breadbrowser Yes zhongnanhai you mean. I did see that they are funneling the water out of Beijing to the country side.

@BTE I feel soo bad for them and I don't get why more people aren't talking about it

@jonsimon China is weaker than the USA

@BTE this market is not "Will China win", it is "Will China launch an invasion".

Dying countries lash out somewhat often (see Russia currently).