The demand for high-performance computing hardware, particularly NVIDIA's H100 Tensor Core GPU, has seen a surge with the rise of advanced artificial intelligence applications. Major investments, like the one seen with Inflection AI which purchased 22,000 H100 GPUs, emphasize the increasing need for these GPUs in large-scale AI projects.
Will any entity, anywhere in the world, be confirmed to have placed an order for a cumulative total of at least 100,000 NVIDIA H100 Tensor Core GPUs by January 1st, 2024?
Resolution Criteria:
This question will resolve to "YES" if, before January 1st, 2024, credible evidence confirms that an entity, such as a government, corporation, non-profit, university, or single individual:
Placed a valid order for a cumulative total of at least 100,000 NVIDIA H100 Tensor Core GPUs.
Provided proof of this purchase intent through:
a. Official statements or press releases from the entity itself, NVIDIA, or any other relevant stakeholder.
b. Credible news reports or articles from well-established media outlets known for reliable reporting in the tech industry.
c. Financial reports or documentation that disclose the intended purchase quantity of GPUs.Made this purchase intent for any purpose, including research, deployment in data centers, commercial product development, or any other use.
Evidence of intent to purchase from secondary markets, i.e., intending to buy from a third party that is not NVIDIA, will also be considered valid as long as the entity's total intended GPU order reaches the 100,000 threshold. All cards labeled "H100" will count as an H100 GPU for the purpose of this question. Dual H100 NVL cards count as two H100 GPUs for the purpose of this question.
I will use my discretion when resolving this question, possibly in consultation with experts, to ensure the criteria are met and that there is solid evidence of an entity's purchase for the specified number of GPUs.
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ58 | |
| 2 | Ṁ50 | |
| 3 | Ṁ45 | |
| 4 | Ṁ13 | |
| 5 | Ṁ6 |
Note to predictors: I currently intend to resolve this question to YES, given the evidence linked in my other comment. Since this question closed at 4%, I predict this resolution will be controversial. If you object to such a resolution, please tell me very soon, as otherwise your voice will not be heard.
@MatthewBarnett I thought there was definitely someone who bought >100,000 H100s last year, but I bet this down to 4% because I thought there would not be conclusive confirmation of such a purchase (i.e. criteria 2a / 2b / 2c would not be met). I don't think Omdia or tom's hardware (crossposted to Yahoo Finance) count as "well-established media outlets known for reliable reporting in the tech industry".
If the same story had appeared on TechCrunch or WIRED, I would agree with a YES resolution, but I suspect the story you linked to would not meet their reporting standards and wouldn't get published there.
@JonasVollmer Sorry for just getting around to responding to this comment now.
Here's why I am resolving to YES, even though I think you made a reasonable argument:
GPT-4 agreed with me that Tom's Hardware is "a well-established media outlet known for its reliable reporting in the tech industry". It said, "It's been around since the mid-90s, providing in-depth reviews, news, and analyses on a wide range of hardware products and technology trends. They've built a strong reputation over the years for their thorough testing methodologies and detailed coverage, making them a go-to resource for enthusiasts, professionals, and anyone interested in the latest developments in technology." You can see the chat log here.
The story was also reported in PC Gamer, which is an outlet that's been reporting on the tech industry since the 1990s. GPT-4 described PC Gamer as "indeed recognized as a well-established media outlet within the tech and gaming industry". You can see the chat log here.
When I asked GPT-4 whether Omdia Research is a "well-established media outlet known for reliable reporting in the tech industry", it told me that it is indeed well-established and known for reliable reporting in the tech industry, but it's not a traditional media outlet. You can see the chat logs here.
Importantly, Omdia Research seem reliable in a quite basic sense. I didn't find much reason to doubt their reporting while researching the resolution for this question.
Since I think all of the criteria in the question were literally satisfied, we can turn to the intent behind the question. The intent of the question was to determine whether an event satisfying the criteria would be "confirmed" to have happened during the time period. I believe that indeed, such an event was confirmed to have happened. The intent of the question was not to judge whether this event would be confirmed by a high-status media outlet, just whether it would be confirmed at all.
Therefore, given that the criteria in the question were met according to the literal wording, and given that the intent of the question is respected by a resolution of YES, I am hereby resolving the question to YES.
Note to predictors: this question will wait until more information comes to light before resolving. The firm Omdia claims that both Meta and Microsoft ordered as many as 150,000 H100 GPUs last year. The resolution criteria specify that this question can resolve positively on the basis of "Credible news reports or articles from well-established media outlets known for reliable reporting in the tech industry."
I do not know how reliable or well-established Omdia is. As a result, I am seeking an open discussion about this report to determine the resolution of this question.
Taking NO for three reasons:
I estimate 1 million H100s are produced in a year, so 100k is too large of a fraction.
The organizations that can get such a large order filled — primarily the huge clouds — do not have a record of announcing their order sizes.
Nvidia seems to prefer that no one announce their order sizes.
On #1,
>The GPU Squeeze continues to place a premium on Nvidia H100 GPUs. In a recent Financial Times article, Nvidia reports that it expects to ship 550,000 of its latest H100 GPUs worldwide in 2023. The appetite for GPUs is obviously coming from the the generative AI boom, but the HPC market is also competing for these accelerators. It is not clear if this number includes the throttled China-specific A800 and H800 models.
https://www.hpcwire.com/2023/08/17/nvidia-h100-are-550000-gpus-enough-for-this-year/
In this question, should we understand 'H100' as referring to any of the H100 types mentioned in this article? One of these cards is a 2-in-1 card, do those count as one or two H100s for this purpose?
@JacobPfau I think any H100 type should count. Is the 2-in-1 card roughly equivalent to 2 separate H100s? I think my answer will depend on that.
@MatthewBarnett I don't know anything more than the info in the link, but seems roughly equivalent to two of the base ones at least in terms of memory. I'd suggest counting the dual NVLs as two cards for the purposes of this question.
@JacobPfau OK I'll modify the criteria to clarify that (1) all cards count as H100s as long as NVIDIA labels them that, and (2) dual NVLs count as two cards for the purpose of this question.