End of pre-training era for language models: Will an LM fine-tune for more FLOPs than it is pre-trained for, before 2026
21
1kṀ1255
2026
44%
chance

The LM must have 'frontier' performance (having PILE/or similar perplexity above one year prior's SotA). The LM must have been trained after 2022.

If it's unclear whether this has happened, I will give this a year to resolve. If it remains plausibly unclear the market will resolve N/A.

Fine-tuning includes all RL training. Training on synthetic data, or additional supervised learning (which is deliberately trained on after training on a PILE-like generic dataset) counts as fine-tuning. If the nature of pre-training changes such that all SotA models do RL/instruction training/etc. during the initial imitation learning phase, I will probably resolve this question as ambiguous. Multi-modal training of text+image will by default count as pre-training.

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