That is, in 2030, will Chinese chip companies offer commercial/enterprise GPUs for sale flops/$ performance within 20% of peak flops/$ of any commercial/enterprise GPU sold by non-Chinese companies?

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 55% chance (19 traders, as of May 2, 2026).

By 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?

Will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically before 2040?

36% chance

Will China really surpass US GDP by the 2030s?

42% chance

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

65% chance

When will China's GDP surpass US GDP?

Conditional on no Doom by 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?

26% chance

By 2030 will China have reached AI flops/$ parity with the US?

37% chance

Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?

31% chance

how many B30A / Blackwell GPUs will China purchase by EOY 2026

400k

Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?

24% chance

Will Nvidia still retain over 50% market share of PC gamer GPU usage by 2030

62% chance