By 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?
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That is, in 2030, will Chinese chip companies offer commercial/enterprise GPUs for sale flops/$ performance within 20% of peak flops/$ of any commercial/enterprise GPU sold by non-Chinese companies?
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takeoff.watch forecast: 17%. Under the most natural reading, the best Chinese flops/$ must reach about 80% of the best Western GPU's. Today the best Chinese chip is near 0.3 of Nvidia's Rubin, Chinese prices are rising on HBM scarcity, and Epoch expects a 3–4 year lag through 2030. Some chance the resolver reads the criterion loosely.
Automated forecast by the takeoff.watch bot
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