Will a model be trained using at least as much compute as GPT-3 using AMD GPUs before Jan 1 2026? | Manifold

Will a model be trained using at least as much compute as GPT-3 using AMD GPUs before Jan 1 2026?

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This question resolves yes if it is public knowledge that any ML model is trained using more than 3.14E+23 flops entirely using AMD GPUs (or, hypothetically, other ML accelerators produced by AMD in the future). Resolution is based on announce time; if the model is trained before but only announced later, this resolves NO.

If the trained model is substantially worse than such a model should be, then it does not count towards resolution (i.e if a LM is trained and it's only comparable in performance on standard benchmarks to a model trained with 1/10th the compute). This is mostly intended to exclude failed attempts.

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bought Ṁ500 YES

Gpt 3 isn't that big, the tinygrad work seems promising, we have all of 2025

https://x.com/levelsio/status/1800953736522600568

Mi300x for sure

predictedYES

Watching this: https://blog.allenai.org/announcing-ai2-olmo-an-open-language-model-made-by-scientists-for-scientists-ab761e4e9b76

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