What will be the maximum achievable flop utilization on the next generation of Nvidia server chips? | Manifold

What will be the maximum achievable flop utilization on the next generation of Nvidia server chips?

Standard

35

Ṁ1431

2025

1D

1W

1M

ALL

1%

<30%

1.5%

30-40%

6%

40-50%

9%

50-60%

34%

60-70%

23%

70-80%

11%

80-90%

14%

90-100%

Concretely, what is the best FLOPS (Floating Point Operations per Second) the next generation of Nvidia server cards will be able to achieve on fp16 matrix multiplications on matrices generated by the normal distribution, divided by the maximum theoretical FLOPS that Nvidia reports?

For example, for A100s, it's possible to achieve about 280+ TeraFLOPS out of a maximum of 312 TeraFLOPS, for a maximum flop utilization of ~90%.

On H100s, it seems to be closer around 700 TeraFLOPS, out of a maximum of 1000.

Will resolve when values seem clear after HNext cards are released, or a maximum of one year after Nvidia announces it.

To clarify, this will be for the B100, not the B200.

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I wouldn’t have a means to test this, but I wonder if the answer could be over 100% using liquid nitrogen and heavy overclocking.

To clarify, I will be basing this off the standard configuration (i.e. the listed 700W in their spec). If Nvidia sells an unusual spec with a higher power limit, I won't be using that to resolve the market.

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When will Nvidia's GH200 "Grace Hopper" superchip be released.

Will Nvidia still retain over 50% market share of PC gamer GPU usage by 2030

Will NVIDIA maintain >=75% of the Data center market share for at least 2 quarters in 2024 (by revenue)?

Will the Groq chip inspire Nvidia/AMD to produce radically new AI chips before 2026?

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Will AI accelerators improve in FLOPs/watt by 100x of an NVidia H100 by 2033?

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