Political Events NBA PlayoffsTrump VPTwitterTrump TrialTikTok BanNFL DraftTaylor SwiftLegal Weed?Iran-IsraelBiden-Trump PollsHouse SpeakerJason StonksKey RacesFSK BridgeOpenAIOne PieceMusic AI RaceChessManifestTV PropsWWDC 2024ACX 2024 Hard Forkasts

AI capabilities (short- and medium-term) [WIP]

Work in progress. Feedback welcome.

resolved
Will A.I., "Hallucinate Significantly Less," by the End of 2023?NO
#AI
#AI Safety
#AI Impacts
trending
Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?42% chance
#AI
#Mathematics
trending
In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)38% chance
#Technical AI Timelines
#AI
#The Coffee Test
trending
Will an AI model outperform 95% of Manifold users on accuracy before 2026?67% chance
#Technical AI Timelines
#Technology
#Manifold
trending
"Improving AI Benchmarks" by Isabel Juniewicz - DiscussionṀ2,500 bounty
#Manifest 2023 Talks
#Manifest
Ṁ2.5K
trending
By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)92% chance
#Technical AI Timelines
#AI
trending
Benchmark Gap #4: Once a single AI model solves >= 95% of miniF2F, MATH, and MMLU STEM, how many months will it be before an AI is listed as a (co) first author on a published math paper?37
#Technical AI Timelines
#AI
#Mathematics
trending
By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)92% chance
#Technical AI Timelines
#AI
trending
Benchmark Gap #1: Once we have a language model that achieves expert human performance on all *current* major NLP benchmarks, how many years will it be before we have an AI with human-level language skills?4.5
#Technical AI Timelines
#AI
trending
Will a robot capable of passing both the Coffee Test and a strong, adversarial Turing test be created before 2100?93% chance
#AI
#The Coffee Test
trending
In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)39% chance
#Technical AI Timelines
#AI
#Mathematics
trending
Benchmark Gap #5: Once a single AI model solves >= 95% of miniF2F, MATH, and MMLU STEM, will it be less than two years before AI models are used as entry-level data science / data analysis / statistics workers?67% chance
#AI
#Technical AI Timelines
trending
Will any author of "Clever Hans or Neural Theory of Mind?" say that LLMs have some robust Theory-of-Mind (ToM) in 2026?44% chance
trending
When will self-improving AI outperform human-developed AI?2030
#Technical AI Timelines
#AI
resolved
Will an AI song have >100m plays? (2023)NO
#AI
#New Year's Resolutions 2024
resolved
Will any Twitter account with at least 10,000 followers be discovered to be an AI during 2023?NO
#AI
#Twitter
#Elon musk
trending
will research with at least 50% AI generated content win the Nobel Prize by 2030?22% chance
#AI
#Technical AI Timelines
#AI Safety
resolved
Will an AI system be known to have resisted shutdown before 2024?NO
#AI
#AI Safety
#New Year's Resolutions 2024
resolved
Will a mostly AI channel reach the top 100 ranking on twitchtracker.com in 2023?NO
#Twitch
#AI
#New Year's Resolutions 2024
resolved
Will an AI-authored short story be published in a major science fiction magazine by 2024?NO
#AI
#Technology
#Technical AI Timelines
resolved
Will an AI system be known to have resisted shutdown before 2024?NO
#AI
#AI Safety
#New Year's Resolutions 2024
resolved
Will an AI-authored short story be published in a major science fiction magazine by 2024?NO
#AI
#Technology
#Technical AI Timelines
trending
Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?42% chance
#AI
#Mathematics
Google
Search the world's information, including webpages, images, videos and more. Google has many special features to help you find exactly what you're looking for.
See more questions: