Will a robot capable of passing both the Coffee Test and a strong, adversarial Turing test be created before 2100?

The pursuit of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) seeks to create machines with human-level intelligence and versatility, capable of understanding or learning any intellectual task that a human can perform. The Turing test, proposed by Alan Turing, is a prominent measure of AGI, focusing on a machine's ability to engage in natural language conversations that are indistinguishable from those of a human. While the Turing test primarily assesses an AI's linguistic and cognitive abilities, the integration of robotics introduces a physical dimension to the evaluation. The Coffee Test, proposed by Steve Wozniak, is a benchmark in robotics that gauges an AI's capacity to perform everyday tasks, such as making coffee in an unfamiliar kitchen. Addressing the AI's ability to interact with and manipulate its environment, the Coffee Test complements the Turing test in emphasizing the importance of both cognitive and physical capabilities in the development of AGI. Together, these tests provide a more comprehensive assessment of the AI's overall performance and potential impact on various real-world applications.

Will a robot capable of passing both the Coffee Test and a long, informed, adversarial Turing test be created before 2100?

Resolution criteria:

This question refers to a high-quality subset of possible Turing tests that will, in theory, be extremely difficult for any AI to pass if the AI does not possess extensive knowledge of the world, mastery of natural language, common sense, a high level of skill at deception, and the ability to reason at least as well as humans do. Additionally, the AI must be a single unified artificial system with robotic capabilities that have clearly been demonstrated to be sufficient to pass the Coffee Test from Steve Wozniak.

  • A rigorous definition of a long, adversarial Turing test has been provided here.

  • A rigorous definition of the Coffee Test has been provided here.

This question resolves to YES if before January 1st 2100, a single unified AI with robotic capabilities is clearly, credibly and near-uncontroversially, documented to be capable of passing both a long, adversarial Turing test as defined in the link provided, and the Coffee Test as defined in the link provided. The question resolves to NO otherwise.

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