Will an AI model outperform 95% of Manifold users on accuracy before 2026?
Plus
63
Ṁ39742025
56%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This is comparing accuracy of the AI model vs Manifold users on a 'benchmark' selection of objective markets'.
Inspired by the Autocast competition: https://forecasting.mlsafety.org/
Close date updated to 2026-01-01 12:59 am
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
Not sure how you're measuring accuracy, but acc is more profitable and I don't have a better way to measure accuracy.
Related questions
Related questions
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
59% chance
Will an AI achieve >30% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?
28% chance
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?
32% chance
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold be within the top 25% accuracy among all large prediction markets?
56% chance
At the beginning of 2025, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?
64% chance
Will Manifold be cited in a paper from a top-tier AI lab or AI journal before 2025?
15% chance
Will there be an AI-powered trader on Manifold in the top 20 profit leaderboard by end of 2026?
73% chance
An AI is trustworthy-ish on Manifold by 2030?
46% chance
Will a new lab create a top-performing AI frontier model before 2028?
57% chance
Will models be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer before 2027?
40% chance