Will an AI model outperform 95% of Manifold users on accuracy before 2026?
แน€1.1k
2025
67%
chance

This is comparing accuracy of the AI model vs Manifold users on a 'benchmark' selection of objective markets'.

Inspired by the Autocast competition: https://forecasting.mlsafety.org/

Close date updated to 2026-01-01 12:59 am

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By users you mean human users right? Anything in the silicon league excluded?

Hmm... I think that this might depend crucially on how many inaccurate users Manifold will have at that point (e.g., would you count people who haven't been active for years, or all the people who lost their starting Mana in a few bets and then stopped using the platform)?

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Not sure how you're measuring accuracy, but acc is more profitable and I don't have a better way to measure accuracy.

In accuracy or profit?

@Predictor accuracy. updated the market.

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