Will an AI model outperform 95% of Manifold users on accuracy before 2026?

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resolved Jan 23

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This is comparing accuracy of the AI model vs Manifold users on a 'benchmark' selection of objective markets'.

Inspired by the Autocast competition: https://forecasting.mlsafety.org/

Close date updated to 2026-01-01 12:59 am

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@traders planning to resolve this NO unless someone has a compelling example

@Gen probably time to resolve?

Does this refer to a single AI model or to a system with scaffolding? What tools is the model allowed to use?

Are there any examples of currently profitable LLM bots?

By users you mean human users right? Anything in the silicon league excluded?

Hmm... I think that this might depend crucially on how many inaccurate users Manifold will have at that point (e.g., would you count people who haven't been active for years, or all the people who lost their starting Mana in a few bets and then stopped using the platform)?