
Will an AI model outperform 95% of Manifold users on accuracy before 2026?
55
closes 2025
70%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This is comparing accuracy of the AI model vs Manifold users on a 'benchmark' selection of objective markets'.
Inspired by the Autocast competition: https://forecasting.mlsafety.org/
Close date updated to 2026-01-01 12:59 am
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Hmm... I think that this might depend crucially on how many inaccurate users Manifold will have at that point (e.g., would you count people who haven't been active for years, or all the people who lost their starting Mana in a few bets and then stopped using the platform)?
Not sure you're measuring accuracy, but acc is more profitable and I don't have a better way to measure accuracy.


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24 YES payouts
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19 NO payouts
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