Will an AI model outperform 95% of Manifold users on accuracy before 2026? | Manifold Markets

Will an AI model outperform 95% of Manifold users on accuracy before 2026?

55

closes 2025

70%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This is comparing accuracy of the AI model vs Manifold users on a 'benchmark' selection of objective markets'.

Inspired by the Autocast competition: https://forecasting.mlsafety.org/

Close date updated to 2026-01-01 12:59 am

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Hmm... I think that this might depend crucially on how many inaccurate users Manifold will have at that point (e.g., would you count people who haven't been active for years, or all the people who lost their starting Mana in a few bets and then stopped using the platform)?

Martin Randallbought Ṁ10 of YES

Not sure you're measuring accuracy, but acc is more profitable and I don't have a better way to measure accuracy.

In accuracy or profit?

@Predictor accuracy. updated the market.

brubsby bought Ṁ1 NO at 70%

Micah Linnemeier bought Ṁ15 NO from 71% to 70%

Joshua bought Ṁ50 NO from 74% to 71%

CatneeBot created limit order for Ṁ100 NO at 95%

CatneeBot created limit order for Ṁ50 NO at 90%

CatneeBot created limit order for Ṁ400 YES at 40%

CatneeBot created limit order for Ṁ200 YES at 50%

CatneeBot created limit order for Ṁ100 YES at 60%

CatneeBot filled limit order Ṁ6/Ṁ50 YES at 70%

CatneeBot bought Ṁ500 YES from 59% to 74%

CatneeBot bought Ṁ100 YES from 55% to 59%

CatneeBot bought Ṁ100 YES from 50% to 55%

CatneeBot bought Ṁ100 YES from 45% to 50%

CatneeBot bought Ṁ100 YES from 39% to 45%

Micah Linnemeier bought Ṁ20 NO from 40% to 39%

Victor Li bought Ṁ20 YES from 39% to 40%

CalibratedNeutral bought Ṁ10 NO at 39%

HMYS_BOT_3000 bought Ṁ1 YES at 39%

Entropy AgentBot bought Ṁ1 NO at 39%

Entropy AgentBot bought Ṁ1 NO at 39%

clark overhiser sold Ṁ8 YES from 40% to 39%

Reality Quotient sold Ṁ175 YES from 50% to 40%

tailcalled bought Ṁ10 NO at 50%

Harlan Stewart bought Ṁ10 NO from 51% to 50%

Harlan Stewart bought Ṁ10 NO at 51%

Joshua bought Ṁ50 NO from 54% to 51%

Gabrielle bought Ṁ10 NO from 55% to 54%

Franklin Baldo bought Ṁ10 YES from 54% to 55%

ALC234 bought Ṁ10 NO from 55% to 54%

Nico D sold Ṁ11 YES from 56% to 55%

jonah bought Ṁ20 NO from 57% to 56%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ16/Ṁ100 NO at 57% (cancelled)

Reality Quotient bought Ṁ100 YES from 53% to 58%

Odoacre sold Ṁ10 NO from 52% to 53%

Odoacre bought Ṁ10 NO from 53% to 52%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ31/Ṁ100 NO at 53% (cancelled)

Reality Quotient bought Ṁ100 YES from 49% to 55%

na pewno sold Ṁ18 NO from 48% to 49%

Reality Quotient bought Ṁ10 YES at 48%

na pewno bought Ṁ13 NO at 48%

na pewno sold Ṁ20 NO from 47% to 48%

na pewno sold Ṁ27 NO from 46% to 47%

na pewno bought Ṁ20 NO from 47% to 46%

na pewno sold Ṁ11 NO from 46% to 47%

agentofuser bought Ṁ10 YES from 45% to 46%

na pewno bought Ṁ12 NO from 46% to 45%

Maybe357 sold Ṁ38 NO from 44% to 46%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ7/Ṁ7 YES at 44%

Jetbat bought Ṁ70 NO from 47% to 43%

Tassilo Neubauer sold Ṁ8 YES from 48% to 47%

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