Will an AI model outperform 95% of Manifold users on accuracy before 2026?
55
closes 2025
70%
chance

This is comparing accuracy of the AI model vs Manifold users on a 'benchmark' selection of objective markets'.

Inspired by the Autocast competition: https://forecasting.mlsafety.org/

Close date updated to 2026-01-01 12:59 am

Sort by:
Sjlver avatar
Sjlver

Hmm... I think that this might depend crucially on how many inaccurate users Manifold will have at that point (e.g., would you count people who haven't been active for years, or all the people who lost their starting Mana in a few bets and then stopped using the platform)?

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randallbought Ṁ10 of YES

Not sure you're measuring accuracy, but acc is more profitable and I don't have a better way to measure accuracy.

Predictor avatar
Predictor 🔥

In accuracy or profit?

o avatar
Orpheus

@Predictor accuracy. updated the market.

Related markets

At the beginning of 2026, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?73%
At the beginning of 2025, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?75%
At the beginning of 2024, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?79%
At the beginning of 2029, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?77%
At the beginning of 2027, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?73%
At the beginning of 2028, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?72%
At the beginning of 2030, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?73%
Will Manifold be cited in a paper from a top-tier AI lab or AI journal before 2025?48%
At the beginning of 2035, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?73%
Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?15%
Will AI surpass human intellect by 2030?96%
Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2026?21%
Will AI get ≥90% one-shot accuracy on Mintaka before 2024?24%
Will AI image generating models score >= 90% on Winoground by June 1, 2025?85%
Will any AI solve >=50 IMO problems by the start of 2024?45%
Will there be an AI language model that surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?58%
Will any AI solve >=100 IMO problems by the start of 2024?20%
Will a single model achieve superhuman performance on all OpenAI gym environments by 2025?59%
Will an AI get a perfect SAT score before 2025?86%
Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2028?40%