When will self-improving AI outperform human-developed AI?
16
90
1k
2051
2030
expected

After self-improving AI begins to produce state-of-the-art progress in AI research, this market will resolve once human teams have failed to produce a new state-of-the-art result on any commonly accepted benchmark for 1 year.

Hybrid teams with substantial human input will count as human-developed.

Achieving SOTA on a new benchmark or dataset only because it was not available to the other side is not sufficient.

Results beyond 2050 will resolve to 2050. If it's discovered that such a system already existed pre-2010, it will resolve to 2010.

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