AI Compute

Ṁ800
How many H100 will NVIDIA sell in 2023?
100%31%
500k - 750k
0.4%
<100k
0.7%
100k - 250k
1.9%
250k - 500k
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Ṁ645
When will Nvidia's GH200 "Grace Hopper" superchip be released.
0.7%
2023, August to September
2%
2023, October to December
44%
2024, January to June
38%
2024, July to December
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Ṁ1.3k
Will a model be trained using at least as much compute as GPT-3 using AMD GPUs before Jan 1 2026?
20% chance
Ṁ190
Will any chip maker other than NVIDIA, Intel, and AMD create accelerators for Deep Learning and be profitable by 2030?
90% chance
Ṁ190
Will Graphcore be a serious NVIDIA competitor?
NO
Ṁ1k
Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?
2% chance
Ṁ1k
Which of the following alt cloud GPU startups will have the highest valuation by EOY 2024?
100%98%
coreweave.com
0.2%
tinygrad.org
0.2%
lambdalabs.com
0.1%
Paperspace.com
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Ṁ1k
Will a large AI company (e.g. OpenAI) acquire an inference-focused AI chip compnay in the next 12 months?
YES
Ṁ1.1k
At least one of the most powerful neural nets at end of 2026 will be trained using 10^27 FLOPs
84% chance
Ṁ110
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^27 FLOP in China before 2028?
44% chance
Ṁ1k
GPT-5 trained with >=24k GPUs?
95% chance
Ṁ510
Will an entity be confirmed to have purchased at least 100,000 H100 GPUs before January 1st, 2024?
YES
Ṁ1k
End of pre-training era for language models: Will an LM fine-tune for more FLOPs than it is pre-trained for, before 2026
37% chance
Ṁ1.7k
What will be the maximum achievable flop utilization on the next generation of Nvidia server chips?
100%32%
70-80%
0.9%
<30%
1.2%
30-40%
5%
40-50%
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Ṁ15k
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
33% chance
Ṁ1k
By 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?
53% chance
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