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Trump Trials

Will the Supreme Court uphold the ruling that Trump does not have immunity in the election subversion trail?1% chance
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Plus
When will Trump serve time?
67%
Never
0.1%
2023
8%
2024
15%
2025
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Will Trump spend any time in jail by the end of 2024?7% chance
P Prize Market
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Plus
How will the Supreme Court split in the Trump immunity case?
100%1.6%
6-3 in Trump's favor
0.6%
9-0 in Trump's favor
0.5%
8-1 in Trump's favor
0.7%
7-2 in Trump's favor
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When will the US Supreme Court issue an order/opinion/decision on the Trump immunity case?
100%98.2%
July - September 2024
0.1%
May 2024
0.3%
June 2024
1.4%
After September 30, 2024
CNN
Donald Trump found guilty of all 34 charges in hush money trial | CNN Politics
A Manhattan jury found Donald Trump guilty on all 34 counts of falsifying business records he faced in his New York hush money criminal trial.
What will Trump's sentence for his hush money felony convictions include?
3%
Fine of at least $10,000,000
5%
Prison time
13%
Fine of at least $1,000,000
13%
House arrest
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Will a convicted felon win the 2024 presidential election?55% chance
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before the end of 2024?8% chance
Will Trump Face Significant Repercussions (Incarceration or Political Restrictions) from Hush Money Verdict?6% chance
AP News
Jurors in Trump hush money trial end 1st day of deliberations after asking to rehear testimony
Jurors will receive instructions from the judge on the law and the factors they may consider as they strive to reach a verdict in the first criminal case against a former American president.
CNN
Judge finds Donald Trump in contempt for 10th time over gag order and threatens jail time | CNN Politics
Judge Juan Merchan has found former President Donald Trump in contempt for violating the gag order in his hush money trial for the 10th time and said he’ll consider jail time going forward.
Will Trump be sentenced to prison for violating a gag order?7% chance
AP News
Hush money trial judge raises threat of jail as he finds Trump violated gag order, fines him $9K
Donald Trump has been held in contempt of court and fined $9,000 for repeatedly violating a gag order that barred him from making public statements about witnesses, jurors and some others connected to his New York hush money case.
Just Security
A Complete Guide to the Manhattan Trump Election Interference Prosecution
A comprehensive guide on what to expect at Donald Trump's landmark criminal trial in Manhattan for his alleged falsification of business records and hush money arrangement in 2016 presidential election.
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