Will Trump Face Significant Repercussions (Incarceration or Political Restrictions) from Hush Money Verdict?
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43
5.0k
2025
26%
chance

Resolution Criteria

  1. Definition of repercussions: Any form of incarceration (including house arrest) or substantial restrictions on political activities. Mere fines, a successful appeal (nullifying the verdict), or losing the right to vote count as no significant repercussions and resolve to NO.

  2. Community Service Clause: I will count community service as significant repercussions only if Trump is treated equally to the other felons. A token service will resolve to NO at my discression.

  3. Timeline: Assessment based on legal status 18 months from the initial verdict.

  4. Verification: Official court documents or credible news sources confirming the outcome.

  5. Appeal: If the verdict is overturned, it counts as no repercussions.

  6. Fine-only scenario: If Trump only pays a fine, it counts as no repercussions.

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Added a clause in the case of community service. Does it seem fair? I welcome your feedback.

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4701566-gop-senators-warn-judge-against-sentencing-trump-to-prison/

Republican senators warn any sentence that would impact Trump’s mobility or ability to communicate with voters could seriously undermine voters’ confidence in the fairness of the 2024 election.

Legal experts predict Merchan won’t sentence Trump to prison right before the convention, but some GOP lawmakers fear that scenario is possible given what they’ve seen of the prosecution and trial so far.

Appeal will take a long time (and an appeal is guaranteed). Are you saying that you will wait for the appeal outcome or does filing the appeal immediately resolve no?

An appeal will also almost definitely not be resolved in 18 months. So I’m really not sure what happens when an appeal is filed and is not resolved in 18 months. The timeline for “political repercussions” ends this year.

@voodoo I think 4 and 6 covers your questions? As for the timeline: what would you suggest is a more appeopriate span?

Edit: point 6 was since removed (redundant).

@GazDownright It depends on your intent really.
If you want a final outcome, an appeal will take years most likely.

There will be no 'punishment' while an appeal is underway.
If you want political repercussions on this election, the timeline ends with election day.

@voodoo I wonder whether this felony verdict will amount to anything or simply dissipate over time into nothing. In your opinion, if we are talking about the final outcome, how would this affect the timeline?

@GazDownright I think the only repercussion it could have on this election (which I assume is the only one that matters to Trump) is whatever influence it could have on voters. Beyond that, it’s just a lot of fodder about how historical it is. If it doesn’t change enough minds about who to vote for, it amounts to nothing in my view.

As far as a final outcome, I think we’re heading towards an appeal that would need to be adjudicated against a possibly sitting president. Nobody really knows what that means.

Imprisonment at any point in time due to this verdict is extremely unlikely in my view, regardless of appeal outcome.

I’m not sure I’m answering your question.

@voodoo I'm thinking the scope is wider than the election only, and therefor leaning towards having a sliding time limit pending final outcomes. However, would it make the market more interesting with a fixed limit, for example tied to the elction or presidency?

Edit: sticking to 18 months after initial verdict.

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