Will Trump be sentenced to prison for violating a gag order?

This market will resolve YES if Trump is sentenced to prison, jail, lockup, or house arrest, for violating any gag order from any court in 2024. If not, resolves NO on January 1st, 2025.

Being sentenced to prison for any other reason won't resolve YES. Also, this question is only about whether Trump is sentenced to prison, not whether he actually goes, for example, if he appeals it.

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This will backfire onto the libs, but they will not be able to stop themselves from doing it.

BTW technically "sentenced" is not the correct word here for what you are asking. A better one would be "sanctioned".

@admissions The judge has stopped himself 10 times so far. Why do you proclaim it as “the liberals” when it’s just the judge and trumps actions at play? Even the prosecution in their complaints have not sought jail, asking only for fines. A lot of narrative not a lot of evidence

@BennyBoy I don't think political trials are decided in the courtroom in any meaningful way .. not in Putin's Russia and not in Democrats' New York.

@admissions Can you stop being cryptic and edgy and just say it with your chest? Just say what you think is happening without resorting to cop-out cowardly platitudes.

@admissions Comparing a country where the ruler is essentially a dictator who can rule forever and evade trial vs New York is crazy. The chance that there would be shady deals outside of the courtroom is pretty low given that it’s a jury of 12 people who all have different experiences.

@admissions So you believe the American justice system is not trustworthy - should we release all the prisoners? Why should anyone respect the court findings on any matter at all?

@ShadowyZephyr I am not comparing the countries, but the character of political trials. Why are all these trials happening during the election year? Would all these charges have been brought up if Trump wasn't running? Did the judge fine Trump ten times instead of incarcerating him because that's how it's normally done, or because it would hurt Biden's re-election chances?

I do not believe there are any backroom dealings (except perhaps the initial decision to launch all these cases), just that the judge will do whatever the collective libs decide should be done. It is a vibes-based trial.

Jury in a lib district where during selection both sides had the same number of strikes, where judge allowed people with history of anti-Trump social media posts, where the prosecution is allowed to present the case as if it was a trial of Trump's personality rather than a specific crime, where I think 3 of the jurors said they watch CNBC? Biased.

@BennyBoy That's something people running these prosecutions should ask themselves. Trump says trials like this normally only happen in banana republics and I agree. Personally, I am sceptical of the court system ever since watching Derek Chauvin's trial. The jury came back after like 30 minutes having decided it based on vibes alone. It is only an issue with high visibility trials though.

@admissions 1- These trials have been in preparation for several years at this point. Trials, especially ones this complex, are lengthy multi-stage processes. His classified documents case just got delayed indefinitely, and likely won’t come back on until after the election.

2- Yes, these trials would still be happening if he wasn’t running because the United States values rule of law unlike Russia, who is ran by a gang of oligarchic criminals who have stolen and assassinated their way to the top at the expense of their nation’s interests, journalistic freedom, and healthy democratic opposition.

3- The judge fined Trump every time because that’s what the prosecution recommended. He was actually so fed up with his constant violations that he implied that he would incarcerate him if they recommended it next time this happens. A better question here would be this: is he doing this because he wants to get incarcerated because he thinks it’ll help his re-election chances?

4- the jurors go through a selection process where both Trump’s defense and the prosecution approve. The judge doesn’t get to choose who sits on the jury. This is basic American law.

5- It’s actually the opposite; trials like these do not happen in banana republics, as people who abuse their power and blatantly break the law do not face consequences because there is no rule of law; meaning that the law does not apply equally to every citizen. If you want to make caveats for former presidents and presidential candidates, you’re arguing for that.

6- The Derek Chauvin trial likely did not require much deliberation because a primary piece of evidence was a video showing him kneeling on the dude’s neck while he repeatedly said he couldn’t breath, not even letting up when he starts losing consciousness and calling for his mother. How was this “based on vibes alone”? How much deliberation do you expect the average person to take when faced with that evidence?

@admissions It’s odd you only discuss vibes or whataboutisms. Why not discuss the case? Or the details of how these systems work? Or the facts of the matter?

You seem to be saying that because you disagree with the outcome of a single case, that the system is completely broken. OJ case doesn’t prove the system is broken, it just means sometimes it’s wrong. But luckily we can just look at the facts of each case. Wouldn’t you agree?

@NADZOR The only thing I would say is that America's support for the rule of law isn't quite as strong as you imply, a sitting president has immunity from lots of lawsuits while in office. The President also has quite a bit of political leverage (as you can see, Manifold themselves is not convinced Trump will serve any time if he gets elected again).

Trump has received a 10th $1,000 fine for violating his gag order.

Judge Merchan has promised that he really will consider giving Trump an even bigger punishment next time (and it seems like the only bigger punishment is prison) but he said that last time as well.

Will he be found to violate his gag order again this month?


I think the title of this question should be slightly adjusted. "Sent to prison" gives a different outlook than the description describes for a YES resolution; "sent to prison, jail, lockup, or house arrest", I think 'confined' would be a better description.

@sinuboh the description states:

this question is only about whether Trump is sent to prison, not whether he actually goes, for example, if he appeals it.

For that reason, using the word "confined" would not be accurate. There are already a dozen+ markets about Trump being confined in prison so this question is completely separate from those and does not seek to duplicate them.

@mint Related confinement market:

I think the clarification is actually (as I interpret the description) about whether he's sentenced, not whether he actually goes or is physically sent there. is that right?

@shankypanky ah, I see. From my perspective being sent to prison vs sentenced to prison was the same thing, and doesn't imply actually arriving there, but I totally agree that "sentenced" is the more clear word. Updating the title and description now, thanks!


Adding a subsidy to this question and boosting it! Might add more later as well. Place your bets!

From CNN:

Judge Juan Merchan has found former President Donald Trump in contempt for violating the gag order in his hush money trial for the 10th time and said he’ll consider jail time going forward.

“Going forward, this court will have to consider a jail sanction,” Merchan said Monday.

“Mr. Trump, it’s important you understand, the last thing I want to do is put you in jail. You are the former president of the United States and possibly the next president as well,” Merchan said.

“The magnitude of this decision is not lost on me but at the end of the day I have a job to do,” the judge added. “So as much as I don’t want to impose a jail sanction … I want you to understand that I will if necessary and appropriate.”


🚨🚨🚨 Trump violated the gag order again and the judge says he'll be sent to prison for futute violations. Is this market underpriced, does it think Merchan is bluffing, or will Trump stop violating his gag order?

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