How will the Supreme Court split in the Trump immunity case?
May 30
9-0 against Trump
8-1 against Trump
7-2 against Trump
6-3 against Trump
5-4 against Trump
5-4 in Trump's favor
6-3 in Trump's favor
7-2 in Trump's favor
8-1 in Trump's favor
9-0 in Trump's favor

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:

I think people are underestimating the odds of 5-4 in either direction. The only conservative justice who strongly objected to Trump's immunity arguments during oral arguments was Amy Comey Barrett, based on the reporting I read. I don't think it's the most likely outcome, but I do think it's underestimated.

Democrats are in denial about everything.

Outcome: The court sends it back to the lower courts for more fact-finding

What if a judge recuses themselves, so there are 8 justices?

bought Ṁ20 6-3 in Trump's favor YES

I believe that six of the judges will agree that Trump does have immunity and three will disagree, which of these options reflects that view?

@HarryHayfield 6 to 3 in Trump's favor.

Probably 9-0 against Trump, but Trump already won by having them agree to hear him. His plan is to delay everything until after the election, which he will successfully do for all but the NY case.

What if there is a plurality opinion?

plurality opinions count towards whichever side they rule (for or against Trump)


@traders Manifold has added Fifty Thousand Mana to this market as a Prize Market. You can find more of them on the dashboard:

Or just look for markets with the shiny outline!

Does this count any split, or only a split that differs in its conclusion?

Suppose 7 justices write an opinion that Trump does not have immunity based on some judicial test, while 2 justices opine against use of that judicial test, but that Trump does not have immunity regardless based on some other grounds.

In this hypothetical yet common scenario, would this market resolve 7-2 against, or 9-0 against?

If the 2 justices’ ultimate opinion is that Trump does not have immunity from this specific prosecution, it would count as 9-0

bought Ṁ100 9-0 against Trump YES

For anyone updating related to the Samuel Alito upside down flag story in NYT, note that he straight up blames his wife in the article.

opened aṀ1,500 9-0 against Trump NO at 30% order

@Joshua was sweating that I made a bad call. Glad you agree with me!

sold Ṁ54 7-2 against Trump YES

How will you handle a decision on limited immunity but not explicitly saying Trump's behavior was immune / a decision to remand?

@Najawin (not a lawyer and not a final decision)

Obviously, immunity exists to some extent with official acts? That's a very well established precedent. This case is about specific actions and a specific criminal trial and whether it is covered by immunity, and I think it should probably resolve to whether he actually gets immunity for this specific trial.

@SemioticRivalry So if the case is remanded you'll resolve this how? 9-0 against?

@Najawin Only if 9 justices agree that Trump should not be granted immunity for this specific trial

@CharlieBauer That's..... Not an answer?

@SemioticRivalry When will this be resolved, now that the decision is 9-0?

bought Ṁ100 9-0 in Trump's favor NO

@SamsaraaTiger Are you thinking of the wrong case?

@simoj I don't think so. Is this Trump v. Anderson (the Colorado case) that got escalated to the Supreme Court, or some other case?

@SamsaraaTiger this is Donald j. Trump v United States, the criminal immunity case

@SemioticRivalry I am not sure what case you are talking about, somehow all I find online is this one - If we aren't talking about the same case, hope you can send some link/source talking about Trump v. United States

More related questions