When will the US Supreme Court issue an order/opinion/decision on the Trump immunity case?
Standard
26
Ṁ14k
resolved Jul 1
100%98.2%
July - September 2024
0.1%
May 2024
0.3%
June 2024
1.4%
After September 30, 2024

Question resolution will be at latest October 1. Will not resolve until it becomes positively resolvable to one of the options listed, that is, of the following happens in the option’s time frame provided: an opinion is issued, an order is issued (such as a remand order or a statement of affirmation, for instance), or an official statement along the lines that the court declares the issue moot, which might happen in such hypothetical scenarios where Trump dies or if the case is dismissed by the prosecutor.

The spirit of this question is to know when we will get an official, significant update from the US Supreme Court on when this case might progress further. Leaks will not count towards resolution. The justices don’t need to issue a full opinion to decide the matter entirely for this question to resolve, I.e. if they send it back to the lower court for more information, this will still resolve at that time such an order is issued. One or more of the justices announcing their recusal doesn’t count towards resolution.

Note: there might be some edge cases such as rehearings by the US Supreme Court or other appeals. This question will resolve immediately once the Supreme Court issues a relevant order,opinion,statement, etc. I will not wait until there is a potential/scheduled rehearing of the case if the case is appealed further after a judgment or decision is made by the US Supreme Court.

If the US Supreme Court does not announce an extension to their 2023 term (without such a decision relating to the case being made) I believe there is still a very slim possibility of an emergency appeal so I will wait cautiously to resolve this case until October (sorry if this edge case happens).

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