Will Trump spend any time in jail by the end of 2024?
37
176
650
2025
17%
chance

Any amount of time in a jail cell counts.

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Related and WAY too low at 13%, possible it resolves in 48 hours

Would e.g. the Atlanta booking that happened earlier this year count?

predicts NO

@EricNeyman No. I think most likely it would be a judge putting him in jail because he continuously violated an order. Some of the judges have acknowledged that literally any other person would be held in confinement pending trial. Most likely it is the credible fear of violence that might occur that is the reason for this singular exception. He can still be a candidate from jail so I see it as no infringement on his speech but rather a consequence of it. So maybe more likely than not?