Will Trump spend any time in jail by the end of 2024?
44
227
1k
2025
18%
chance

Any amount of time in a jail cell counts.

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bought Ṁ50 NO

Updating to NO now…

https://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/status-of-trumps-election-interference-case-in-georgia-trial-date-unknown.amp

“Since the Court of Appeals has agreed to review McAfee's ruling on Willis, Trump and his co-defendants may challenge other rulings made by McAfee.

According to a docket search for the Georgia Court of Appeals, DONALD JOHN TRUMP ET AL. V. THE STATE(Case number A24I0160) will be heard during the court's August 2024 term. The term ends on November 18, 2024. All cases docketed to be heard during the August 2024 term must be decided by March 14, 2025”

So, the appeal won’t be heard until at least August for the Georgia case … looking very unlikely the trial date will even start this year.

Trump has managed to avoid jail for all those contempt of court charges in the NY fraud case, and it seems also unlikely he will serve any prison time for such a nonviolent crime if he were to be found guilty.

With the Florida classified documents case suspended indefinitely the only other criminal case is the D.C. Jan 6 trial that is waiting on a Supreme Court decision. The decision will likely take months and may still require further follow-ups with a lower court such as regarding private vs official acts which will further delay the case. Given the complexity of the case it seems very unlikely for a trial to start before the end of the year.

I don’t expect any more other scenarios that could land Trump in jail this year.

bought Ṁ30 YES

NYC Mayor Adams/NYC corrections on preparing for the possibility…

Related and WAY too low at 13%, possible it resolves in 48 hours

Would e.g. the Atlanta booking that happened earlier this year count?

predicts NO

@EricNeyman No. I think most likely it would be a judge putting him in jail because he continuously violated an order. Some of the judges have acknowledged that literally any other person would be held in confinement pending trial. Most likely it is the credible fear of violence that might occur that is the reason for this singular exception. He can still be a candidate from jail so I see it as no infringement on his speech but rather a consequence of it. So maybe more likely than not?