Life in 2040

Will an asteroid be mined for minerals before 2040?45% chance

Will there be an AI CEO by 2040?50% chance

Will a woman be elected as the President of the United States before the end of 2040?64% chance

Will a robot be created that can fully substitute for a plumber before January 1st, 2040?43% chance

Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2040?89% chance

#The Coffee Test

Will AI become a strategic geopolitical weapon by 2040?90% chance

Will any fusion reactor project demonstrate engineering breakeven before the end of 2040?67% chance

By 2040, will AI be capable of creating a working Manifold clone to a prompt?59% chance

#Technical AI Timelines

Will a fully autonomous, Level 5 self driving car be available for purchase in the US by the year 2040?76% chance

By the year 2040, will the US military integrate a bipedal humanoid robot, similar to Boston Dynamics' Atlas, into its arsenal?69% chance

Will most digital entertainment be AI generated by 2040?51% chance

#Augmented Reality

Will there be a high-speed rail between LA and SF by the end of 2040?42% chance

#Carson's Important Markets

#California High-Speed Rail Project

Will anti-aging treatments developed, approved and available for public usage by 2040?75% chance

Will there be a robot caregiver that can take care of a person 80+ years old w/o assistance by end of 2040?80% chance

#Technical AI Timelines

Will a complex nanoscale self-replicating assembler be developed before 2040?46% chance

Will solar become the primary source of electricity in the US before 2040?66% chance

Will any country implement an UBI (universal basic income) before 2040?66% chance

Will a major country achieve complete carbon neutrality by 2040?55% chance

Mini

How many people worldwide will be living primarily underground in 2040?26m

#Human population crisis

Mini

What will the total off-Earth human population be at the end of 2040?200