Will an asteroid be mined for minerals before 2040?
167
12k
2040
48%
chance

It can be a test, but it needs to be a test of commercial mining, not just returning samples for scientific study. The mining on the asteroid must be succcesful, but it doesn't need to make it back to Earth.

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Title seems poorly worded. I wouldn't think "mining for minerals" would include a test sample that doesn't return to Earth.

predicts YES

Astroforge intends to launch two test missions in 2023. Note: neither one would qualify for a YES resolution on this market, although both would test important aspects.

The quote from the linked article:

"""
The first mission will take place in April 2023 aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 launch in partnership with satellite and in-orbit service provider, OrbAstro. During this mission, we will demonstrate our refinery capabilities with the goal of validating our technology and performing extractions in zero gravity. The spacecraft will launch pre-loaded with an asteroid-like material that the refinery payload will vaporize and sort into its elemental components.

The second mission will take place in October 2023 on a SpaceX lunar rideshare with Intuitive Machines, again partnering with OrbAstro as well as in-space propulsion company Dawn Aerospace. We’ll head to deep space to observe our target asteroid in preparation for our first retrieval mission.
"""

@42irrationalist

These timelines are useful only in this way: that we can infer that there's no chance they'll achieve it before that point in time.