Will a woman be elected as the President of the United States before the end of 2040?
Basic
140
8.3k
2040
75%
chance

This question will resolve as YES if a woman is elected as the President of the United States in any presidential election held before December 31, 2040. The election must take place through the constitutional process and result in a woman assuming the office of the President of the United States.

A woman who serves as Vice President and assumes the office of the President due to the President's death, resignation, or removal from office would not count as a "woman elected as the President."

If a woman is elected as President but is unable to assume office due to death, incapacity, or other reasons, this would still count as a YES resolution as long as the election process had been completed.

For the sake of this market I'll define a woman as someone identifying as a woman at the time of being elected. So trans women are women. Someone identifying as something else, be it a man, genderfluid, etc., will NOT count, even if biologically female. I'm sorry if this changes the odds a lot, just wanted to be more concrete.

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Updated the description to try to make it more concrete and try to prevent confusion! For the changes, see the last paragraph.

This question is maybe a little bit transphobic, no? Please think about it!

predicts YES

@Mirek I've read the title and description twice. I don't see anything transphobic.

bought Ṁ25 YES

@Mirek Trans women are women. I see nothing transphobic here.

Indeed, in the gender identity sense. Recall that the words "female" and "woman" have both sexual and gendered definitions. The statements "trans men aren't men" and "trans men are men" can both be true at the same time, as the definition of "men" used the second time is different in each phrase. The definition of "men" used the first time in each phrase is the gendered definition.

To disambiguate, one could put a subscript number at the end of the word to show which definition they're using. For example, "trans men_2 aren't men_1", and "trans men_2 are men_2", where 1 means the sexual definition and 2 means the gendered definition.

This market's title and description do not disambiguate which definition of woman is being used, and therefore one can only guess as to which definition they're using.

For context, recently, a group of Wikipedia editors added a note to the articles on Man and Woman saying that the words may refer to sex or gender.

Maybe as a default we can assume the market inclusively refers to both sex and gender, meaning anyone who has a female sex and/or has a female gender identity counts? It needs to be known because, depending on the political leanings of the market creator, there may arise a situation where a trans man_2 becomes president, which would satisfy the sexual definition of woman, but not be resolved as YES.

Thank you for this comment! I've made the description more concrete so that there'll less confusion. Hope this helps!

Maybe kamala Harris for sure

@MatthewWheeler elected, though.