A few markets id really appreciate some more traders on :) 

[AD]

Let's solve normative ethical philosophy with prediction markets! 

Do you accept or lean toward consequentialism, deontology, or virtue ethics? Do you think that collective human knowledge improves over time? Come bet on your beliefs!

The market description for each of these markets is as follows (changing by the bracketed reference for each market):

Resolves if PhilPapers or a similarly reputable survey of philosophers reports consistent results that 90% or more (which I will use as consensus) of philosophers surveyed accept or lean towards [consequentialism/deontology/virtue ethics] as the preferred theory of normative ethics.

The market close date will be extended by 5 years if consensus is not reached.

, and I enjoy creating markets on Manifold. I've listed below a few of my markets that I think are particularly interesting and that I would like others to trade on. 

Even if you don't know a ton about the subject, simply making a trade helps to add liquidity to incentivize others who know more to trade themselves!

If you're involved in a social movement, you likely want it to continue thriving long into the future (or until the social problems involved are solved). Here are (somewhat subjective) markets on whether various social movements will become more or less popular between 2022 and 2027. 

I can't help it - I'm hyped about autonomous vehicles! But I don't want that hype to obscure my predictions. Here are some markets regarding autonomous vehicles. 

Artificial intelligence is obviously hot right now, but will that translate into automation such that large numbers of people are losing jobs? Some think so...but what do you think?

Long story short, I used to be a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. As such, I'm very curious about how the sect continues to develop over the coming years!

I love the idea of VR, but the reality is still struggling a bit. But I'm optimistic (or at least hopeful) that it will get better! Here are some markets on VR. 

I also have markets on how / whether specific individuals will 

If you find these markets / topics interesting, please follow me on 

! :) And don't hesitate to reach out - particularly if you're in the Bay Area! (would love to meet for coffee). 

Have you ever been to a Manifold-themed party before? Neither have I! Let’s figure this out together and have a lot of fun. 😊 Here's what you can expect and some tips to make the most out of your experience.

The party revolves around Manifold Markets, a play-money prediction market platform. Don't worry if you're unfamiliar with prediction markets - there will be plenty of experts  at the party to explain it to you! I would recommend finding someone who looks nice / patient and ask them to explain prediction markets and Manifold – it takes a minute to understand, but it's intuitive once you get going! 

Once you understand the basics, ask your friendly guide to help you find the relevant group on Manifold (I would recommend signing up for an account via the app or access via the web). This group houses all the markets related to this party – there are lots, so spend a few minutes looking through and see if there are any that interest you!

The evening has no official structure – it will be somewhat chaotic and freeform, driven by attendees’ desire for profit and fun. As the host, I may nudge things along, but in general there’s nothing that you necessarily “ought to be doing”.

Understanding the directions thus far have been somewhat vague, here is a more specific list of ways that you can enjoy the party:

How to Enjoy the Manifold Party

I joined Manifold in August 2022 and have since been very active on the platform - I check Manifold most days, make loads of predictions, and have made 250+ markets (#36 on the creator leaderboard as of today!) 

I wanted to share a few suggestions for the team and community; they're not all very novel, so I wouldn't be surprised if many of them are already on the roadmap or are in development or have already been suggested by other users. 

Please take these suggestions with the caveat that I (obviously) absolutely love the product and am super impressed by the Manifold team with what you all have been able to create in such a short period of time with so few people. You all rock and I'm excited to potentially invite y'all and the platform users to a party in the Bay Area in 2023!

One theme of my suggestions is that, as the number of markets increases and the platform grows, it is increasingly easy for markets to "die" after initially passing through the notifications of your followers. I think the ability for traders to find / follow markets they are interested in and filter out the rest will be a key issue for Manifold to make progress on in 2023. 

Another theme is that I think groups are super important for Manifold in the long term. The right incentives need to be in place for groups, and I'm excited about the possibilities there. 

Greater Focus on Group Manager/Moderator ("GM&M) Capabilities/Structure

Option for Creators to Pin Markets on Profile

Ability to Create Markets Where Creator Cannot Bet

Native Functionality for Market Dashboards

Thank you to anyone that has read this far. Huge thanks to the Manifold team for creating a product where I feel motivated to actually write all this out. 

Here are a few product suggestions after having interacted with Manifold for a few months

Carson's Manifold Suggestions (2023-01-08)

Thank you to everyone who participated in this year's Gale Family Florida Manifold Competition. In addition to the participants - 

, we had another 24 traders in our markets. Congratulations to everyone!

We had a competition chalk full of market manipulation, tom-foolery, and desperate profit-seeking action. Winners and losers alike fought valiantly for their place on the leaderboard. 

But finally...the moment you've all been waiting for...the results:

, with a net profit of Ṁ605! Emily started off rocky, betting Ṁ100 that 

we would get into a car crash on the way there

; she eventually sold off, but not before losing Ṁ94 of profit before we even arrived at the VRBO. She also lost Ṁ60 understimating whether 

(it was freezing!). Ultimately, 2 markets paid off big-time for her, and she won Ṁ85 in a 

! (turn of phrase, not to be used as evidence in conjunction with 

 with Ṁ1,078 of net profit. Ben was particularly impressive, as he arrived late into the playing field, only beginning to bet with vigor in the last few days of the trip. Ben lost noticeably little during the competition, with the only losing markets being whether 

hold his breath for 40 seconds underwater

. Ben's big winner was whether Grammie would ride an e-bike - after discussing that she wouldn't do it with 

 and the rest of the family, Ben went undercover and 

, winning him Ṁ424 of profit! Ben was also one of the first ones to bet once the U-Haul 

 with Ṁ1,235 of net profit! Tanner was by far the most active Manifolder besides your's truly - he was placing bets from the moment we crossed the state boundaries! Tanner lost big on a few markets, losing Ṁ100 in predicting that 

. However, Tanner was prolific in his successful bets, with 22 markets that ultimately resolved in his favor! My personal favorite was when he physically dragged me into the VRBO to 

call me fat immediately upon setting foot in the buildling

.  He surprised everyone at the last minute, manipulating upsets on markets involving whether 

, whether Tanner would get any family member to 

he would speak in baby talk to baby August

, each earning him over Ṁ150 in profit. 

 were notable for their activity. Josh actually ended up with the single most profitable market regarding whether 

! He did trial runs with Jodi, which he (maybe purposefully?) failed, causing her to bet 1,200 mana against Josh's market. Josh ultimately succeeded and was rewarded with meaningful profit, which he shared with the user 

 (who was unfortunately ineligible for the prize money due to not being a member of the Gale family). 

Thanks to all who participated and looking forward to the next round!