Carson Gale
@CarsonGale
Joined Aug 2022 Following Followers
Joined Aug 2022 Following Followers
Following 2023-01-06, I will not bet on any of my own markets where there is a meaningful degree of subjective judgement involved in the resolution decision.
Creator rank
#0
Total markets
0
Unique traders
2,942+8%
Profit
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Posts
Private Markets
The Private Markets group is a forecasting platform for all things related to private investment markets, including private equity, venture capital, secondaries, real asset investments, and more. The inherent opacity in private markets is well-suited for prediction markets, and hopefully provides an additional tool for market participants making decisions under uncertainty.
Please do not make predictions or markets where you may have material non-public information (MNPI).
Relevant subgroups include the following:
Fund Performance Forecasting
Private Equity Fundraising
Secondary Private Equity
Venture Capital
Term Sheet 2023 Predictions0
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Gale 2022 Florida Trip
Group created to house markets involving the Gale family's 2022 year-end trip to Florida.
At the end of the trip, the top 3 scorers on the group leaderboard will be awarded the following prizes:
1st Place: $50
2nd Place: $25
3rd Place: $10
Note that, while anyone can participate in the group's markets, you must be a member of the extended Gale family to participate in the prizes.
Subgroup of https://manifold.markets/group/gale-family0
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Carson's Manifold Suggestions (2023-01-08)
I joined Manifold in August 2022 and have since been very active on the platform - I check Manifold most days, make loads of predictions, and have made 250+ markets (#36 on the creator leaderboard as of today!)
I wanted to share a few suggestions for the team and community; they're not all very novel, so I wouldn't be surprised if many of them are already on the roadmap or are in development or have already been suggested by other users.
Please take these suggestions with the caveat that I (obviously) absolutely love the product and am super impressed by the Manifold team with what you all have been able to create in such a short period of time with so few people. You all rock and I'm excited to potentially invite y'all and the platform users to a party in the Bay Area in 2023!
(https://manifold.markets/embed/CarsonGale/will-i-throw-a-party-for-manifold-u)One theme of my suggestions is that, as the number of markets increases and the platform grows, it is increasingly easy for markets to "die" after initially passing through the notifications of your followers. I think the ability for traders to find / follow markets they are interested in and filter out the rest will be a key issue for Manifold to make progress on in 2023.
Another theme is that I think groups are super important for Manifold in the long term. The right incentives need to be in place for groups, and I'm excited about the possibilities there.
On to the suggestions!
Ability to "Boost" Markets
As a market creator, there are often markets that I would like more eyes on, but there's not an easy way to achieve that other than word-of-mouth groundroots link-sharing. You can subsidize markets, but that doesn't strictly get more eyes on it
Market creators (and other users, with the permission of the market creator) should be able to pay mana to "boost" the prominence of a given market and get more impressions than the status quo
Two methods come to mind for me:
1. A promoted section on the home page, showing the boosted markets
This could be optional or not, but I think it's good form to make it optional so that users that really don't like it can customize it away; that said, I wouldn't be surprised if there would end up being lots of users that like seeing the boosted markets. I would be far more interested in a market if I know that the creator is paying mana for it to be boosted!
2. Showing boosted markets with increased regularity in ManaSwipe
Mana pricing to boost a market could either be fixed or dynamic, but I personally think auction pricing makes a lot of sense. It solves the problem of users just boosting their markets to farm engagement bonuses, as the market-driven price would likely end up high enough so that it's only worthwhile to boost the truly engaging markets (or if the booster has another motive)
High-value boosting times (e.g., election, year-end resolution season, weekends etc.) would naturally receive a higher auction price
(https://manifold.markets/embed/CarsonGale/if-manifold-creates-a-paytoboost-fe)Additional traders I get on a boosted market are "sticky", since many of them continue to receive notifications for my market after making an initial bet (and they pay more attention to their portfolio)
Manifold benefits as well since users are really paying Manifold for this service (and Mana is "exiting" the system)
(https://manifold.markets/embed/CarsonGale/will-manifold-allow-market-creators-e57029f98ecb)Greater Focus on Group Manager/Moderator ("GM&M) Capabilities/Structure
GM&M Incentives: GM&M incentives should be aligned with fostering active and useful group communities. There needs to be both sufficient incentive to BE a great GM&M, and an incentive (and ability) to NOT be a GM&M if you are not active/interested/the right fit
My initial thought is that any group should either be moderated or non-moderated (users can apply to become GM&Ms of existing non-moderated groups).
To be clear, I think one should still be able to make a group w/o taking any responsibilities for that Group (i.e., it is non-moderated)
There should be a cost to become/stay a GM&M. Maybe a monthly mana cost that is a % of the total Group follower-base? Or a tax if you are accepting suggestions for new markets to include / responding to questions with a time delay? IDK
(https://manifold.markets/embed/CarsonGale/will-group-managers-ever-have-to-pa)There should be a benefit for being a really good GM&M. Maybe mana for each new follower to the group? Or mana for activity (e.g., trades, new markets, etc. in the group) IDK
(https://manifold.markets/embed/CarsonGale/will-group-managers-ever-receive-ma)Seamless In-Group Competitions: Similar to my Term Sheet competition or my Gale Family Vacation competition, it should be organic and easy to run a competition within a group.
The format here may ultimately end up being different than a simple group, with additional detail on the leaderboard and UI on the prize amounts
It would be fantastic to have the ability to fund & transfer USD prize money directly via Manifold for these tournaments (to provide credible promise of payment)
Should have the ability to post Mana as a prize
Could potentially have the ability to crowdsource Mana prizes from users or require Mana payment as an entrance fee into the tournament/competition that funds the prize money
(https://manifold.markets/embed/CarsonGale/will-manifold-provide-native-functi)GM&Ms should have the ability to customize the look & feel of the Group, such as the background image and sidebars
Similar to Reddit, GM&Ms should have the ability to set and enforce the rules of the group. GM&Ms should have the ability to block users from interacting with the group.
GM&Ms should have ultimate authority regarding which markets are added or taken away from their group. They should be able to choose whether other users can directly add markets to their groups, if other users can request to add markets to their groups, or if no other users can add markets to their groups. If a GM&M wants to add a market from another user to their group, the user should either have to provide permission first (X GM&M has requested to add your market to their group) or at least be notified & have the ability to remove it if they would like
In general, I think the ultimate authority for where any group or market is housed/posted should be up to the group GM&M and market creator (and that should be taken more seriously than it is now)
It should be possible to seamlessly create new markets from within a group that are automatically tagged for that group (with permission from the GM&M, where applicable)
GM&Ms should have the ability to link other groups to their own (with the permission of the GM&M from the other group), such that any markets linked to the sub-group are also shown in the main group
This is super important for me. I manage the Private Markets group and consider various other markets (see here, here, and here) to be sub-groups, where each market should be tagged as both the sub-group AND the broader group (i.e., Private Markets). Right now, this is a VERY manual and annoying exercise (and is subject to manual error).
(https://manifold.markets/embed/CarsonGale/will-there-be-functionality-on-mani)It should be possible to have multiple GM&Ms per group (important for large groups)
Group followers should be able to choose to be notified for any new markets that are tagged within a given group
Over time, the general leaderboard will become less important and group-specific leaderboards will become more important
General leaderboard page should reflect this, showcasing top traders from select large groups or otherwise finding ways to showcase group-level achievements (maybe GM&M general leaderboard as well)
Option for Creators to Pin Markets on Profile
As a market creator, some markets are meaningfully more important to me than others. As such, it would be nice to be able to pin certain markets to the top of my profile.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/CarsonGale/will-manifold-create-functionality)Notification Flexibility
The notification settings for Web are great, but I'd like the ability to get push notifications to my mobile device on whatever I want (right now the selection is very limited)
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Conflux/will-manifold-have-mobile-notificat)Ability to Create Markets Where Creator Cannot Bet
There have been multiple markets where the creator has incorrectly resolved their market for profit - most infamously Mr Stone and most recently Alex
In addition, it is difficult to ignore the profit incentive for even the most honorable market creators. Your judgment is simply less trustworthy
As such, it is totally rational to distrust markets where there is a profit incentive for the creator
As a market creator, I'd like the ability to increase my credibility by selecting a toggle in my market regarding whether I can bet in it - and for it to be clear to traders whether I can or not
This also eliminates the need for a lot of caveats that I and other market creators will sometimes provide
FWIW, I feel strongly that market creators should always have the option to bet on their own markets
(https://manifold.markets/embed/CarsonGale/will-manifold-allow-market-creators-9c257b5d593f)One-Click Liking
Often there are markets I would like to follow but not bet on. Similar to 1-click betting, I'd like the ability to 1-click like a market w/o having to click into it
(https://manifold.markets/embed/CarsonGale/will-manifold-create-functionality-7b21ad0cf768)Market & Comment Tipping
This feature used to exist and I really liked it. Would be great to have it back in some form again.
Biggest problem in previous iteration was when you would go to "like" a comment and it would instead tip - it wasn't very clear & caused some consternation
(https://manifold.markets/embed/IsaacKing/will-manifold-reimplement-tips-at-a)Ability to View USD Spent on Mana
Maybe this feature already exists and I can't find it, but I need a place to view all of my transactions in purchasing Mana
(https://manifold.markets/embed/CarsonGale/will-manifold-create-a-way-to-view)Ability to "Draft" Posts / Markets
This post took a good amount of time to create! :) And oftentimes so do markets with longer descriptions / resolution criteria
Similar to Twitter, it would be good to have a drafts capability so that I don't have to create a market / post in one sitting, hoping I don't lose all my work!
(https://manifold.markets/embed/CarsonGale/will-manifold-create-the-functional)Native Functionality for Market Dashboards
I will often create sets of markets that are "linked" together - the same markets with different timelines (e.g., here, here, and here)
It would be helpful if Manifold could permit functionality that would allow for creating multiple binary markets at varying timelines simultaneously (e.g., create 3 markets that each end 1 year apart) and would also show them to traders in tandem to limit friction
(https://manifold.markets/embed/CarsonGale/will-manifold-enable-users-to-creat)Thank you to anyone that has read this far. Huge thanks to the Manifold team for creating a product where I feel motivated to actually write all this out.
Happy trading / creating!
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Carson's Bay Area Manifold Party (2/24 - Presidio)
If you are reading this "About" section, YOU are invited to attend an evening with manifold festivities, to be held on Friday, February 24th at 7pm in my home in the Presidio of San Francisco.
The event will include food/drinks, games, socializing, market creating, trading, and probably some market manipulation here or there.
This event will coincide with a Manifold team onsite in SF, so it's possible that we might have a number of Manifold team members in attendence! (perfect time to annoy the folks in the driver's seat with your dream product suggestion or bug fix!)
Throughout the event, the party attendee with the highest position on the leaderboard of this group will adorn the "Ruler of Manifold" crown, to be admired and adored by all attendees (specific rules regarding deference to the "Ruler of Manifold" position are forthcoming).
At the end of this important contest,
[image]100% of the Manifold founders' ownership in Manifold will be transferred to the contest winner - the true "Ruler of Manifold".
I expect to create a number of markets for this event over the coming weeks, but please also feel free to create any markets that you feel are applicable for this group! (though I will retain the option of removing any markets that I dislike for whatever reason!)
If you are interested in attending, please reach out to me - Carson Gale - at 816-695-1312, and I will provide you with the address in the Presidio.
I look forward to seeing you there!
(https://manifold.markets/embed/CarsonGale/if-i-throw-a-party-for-manifold-use)0
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Results of 2022 Gale Family Florida Manifold Competition
Thank you to everyone who participated in this year's Gale Family Florida Manifold Competition. In addition to the participants - @JodiGale, @PaulGale, @EmilyFuhriman, @JoshuaGale, @BenGale, and @TannerGale, we had another 24 traders in our markets. Congratulations to everyone!
We had a competition chalk full of market manipulation, tom-foolery, and desperate profit-seeking action. Winners and losers alike fought valiantly for their place on the leaderboard.
But finally...the moment you've all been waiting for...the results:
In 3rd place, we have @EmilyFuhriman, with a net profit of Ṁ605! Emily started off rocky, betting Ṁ100 that we would get into a car crash on the way there; she eventually sold off, but not before losing Ṁ94 of profit before we even arrived at the VRBO. She also lost Ṁ60 understimating whether I would go swimming in the ocean (it was freezing!). Ultimately, 2 markets paid off big-time for her, and she won Ṁ85 in a Beat Saber competition with Addison, and a whopping Ṁ663 by flashing her sweet grandmother-in-law! (turn of phrase, not to be used as evidence in conjunction with this market)
In 2nd place, we have @BenGale with Ṁ1,078 of net profit. Ben was particularly impressive, as he arrived late into the playing field, only beginning to bet with vigor in the last few days of the trip. Ben lost noticeably little during the competition, with the only losing markets being whether @PaulGale would unfollow me and whether @JoshuaGale would hold his breath for 40 seconds underwater. Ben's big winner was whether Grammie would ride an e-bike - after discussing that she wouldn't do it with @JodiGale and the rest of the family, Ben went undercover and convinced Grammie to give it a try, winning him Ṁ424 of profit! Ben was also one of the first ones to bet once the U-Haul got ticketed by the HOA, and hopped on the band-wagon of @TannerGale finally speaking on baby August's level.
Finally, in 1st place, we have @TannerGale with Ṁ1,235 of net profit! Tanner was by far the most active Manifolder besides your's truly - he was placing bets from the moment we crossed the state boundaries! Tanner lost big on a few markets, losing Ṁ100 in predicting that @JoshuaGale wouldn't hold his breath for 40 seconds and Ṁ50 that I wouldn't go swimming in the ocean. However, Tanner was prolific in his successful bets, with 22 markets that ultimately resolved in his favor! My personal favorite was when he physically dragged me into the VRBO to call me fat immediately upon setting foot in the buildling. He surprised everyone at the last minute, manipulating upsets on markets involving whether @PaulGale would unfollow me on Twitter, whether Tanner would get any family member to call him "pretty intelligent", and whether he would speak in baby talk to baby August, each earning him over Ṁ150 in profit.
Despite not being prize-winners, @JoshuaGale and @JodiGale were notable for their activity. Josh actually ended up with the single most profitable market regarding whether he could hold his breath for 40 seconds! He did trial runs with Jodi, which he (maybe purposefully?) failed, causing her to bet 1,200 mana against Josh's market. Josh ultimately succeeded and was rewarded with meaningful profit, which he shared with the user @StevenK (who was unfortunately ineligible for the prize money due to not being a member of the Gale family).
Thanks to all who participated and looking forward to the next round!1
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The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom
Group housing markets related to the upcoming Nintendo Switch game: The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom.
https://www.zelda.com/tears-of-the-kingdom/0
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Fund Performance Forecasting
This is a sub-group of Private Markets (https://manifold.markets/group/private-markets) that forecasts the performance of private equity funds.
The forecasted performance from these markets can assist LPs when deciding whether to make primary commitments and secondary buyers when purchasing LP stakes. 0
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Secondary Private Equity
Welcome to the Manifold Markets group for Secondaries! Participants of this group can bet on markets regarding the private equity secondary market with Mana (the alternative currency used on the Manifold Markets platform).
This is a subgroup of the broader Private Markets forecasting platform: https://manifold.markets/group/private-markets/markets
We view prediction markets as valuable for the secondary market due to the inherent opaqueness in private assets and the benefits of utilizing market participants' collective wisdom to make predictions about the future.
Please feel free to create new markets regarding Secondaries and to place bets on existing markets. Best of luck and thank you in advance for your insight!
Featured market:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/AllAboutHustle/what-will-be-the-total-secondaries)0
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Gale Family
This is a group specifically created to house markets regarding the Gale Family. Markets concerning close friends or family are also welcome.
Relevant subgroup: https://manifold.markets/group/gale-2022-florida-trip0
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Term Sheet 2023 Predictions
On January 4th, 2023 Term Sheet, a well-known financial newsletter by Fortune (typically regarding PE/VC) posted a series of predictions regarding the calendar year 2023. The questions cover diverse topics around finance, tech, investment, and other items. I found myself wishing there were associated probabilities as I was reading, so I thought this would make sense for a prediction market like Manifold!
To incentivize traders, I'll offer $100 to the #1 spot on the leaderboard, $50 to the #2 spot, and $25 to the #3 spot; these prizes are conditional on there being 500+ traders across all markets by the end of 2023 (i.e. if one trader bets on 50 markets, that counts as 50 traders for purposes of this calculation). The winning trader must reach out to me via Twitter DM (see my profile - or try to get my attention on Manifold somehow) and I will pay via Venmo or another method if it's not too burdensome (I swear to god if you try to get me to create a crypto wallet...) .
Traders are disqualified from these prizes if they are rude or annoy me (up to my subjective determination). If a trader expects that excessive subjectivity regarding these markets may cause them such distress that it overwhelms the mana, USD prizes, and the inexpressable joy of predicting, I would encourage them to NOT engage with this group and save us both the trouble. There will almost certainly be times when I am slow to respond / opine on a resolution criteria or I misinterpret one of the Term Sheet predictions or I'm not familiar with a given sub-industry or what have you; please engage accordingly!
I would appreciate if traders would help me with the resolution criteria. I will give a good-faith effort in trying to resolve these markets, but there are quite a few areas of expertise that I don't have on this list and it's possible I get out of my depth (which I'm going into eyes open, so bet accordingly).
Though it pains me, I will refrain from betting on these markets myself to stay as impartial as possible.
Please do not add or remove markets from this group.
As you will read in the markets, I will not attempt to initially define all resolution criteria in these markets and will instead attempt to handle any nuances/complications/data feasibility as they arise. If by end of 2023 I think it is not possible to confidently resolve a given market in the spirit in which it was intended, I reserve the right to resolve as "n/a" (this may ultimately be the case for many of these markets).
Note that this is a subgroup of Private Markets, a group that I would very much like to grow on Manifold. If you have expertise within the domains of private equity, venture capital, secondaries, or any other topic relating to private markets, please make markets / bet on other markets within that group! I think private markets are perfect candidates for prediction markets and I'm excited about the possibilities (if only it were highly traded / liquid!)0
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