Will any fusion reactor project demonstrate engineering breakeven before the end of 2040?
53
1kṀ13k2040
74%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Some people are optimistic about fusion, especially given recent progress. Initial probability is still super low here anyways because fusion power has been "soon" many times in the past.
Engineering breakeven means that the reaction generates enough excess energy to power itself, and is explained in this wiki article.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
whoops
Related questions
Related questions
Will we get fusion reactors before 2025?
1% chance
In which decade will a fusion reactor project first demonstrate engineering breakeven?
Will First Light Fusion demonstrate breakeven in a fusion reactor before the end of 2025?
8% chance
Will Commonwealth Fusion demonstrate breakeven in a fusion reactor before the end of 2025?
8% chance
Will General Fusion demonstrate breakeven in a fusion reactor before the end of 2025?
2% chance
Will Tokamak Energy demonstrate breakeven in a fusion reactor before the end of 2025?
5% chance
Will Helion demonstrate breakeven in a fusion reactor before the end of 2025?
16% chance
Will we get fusion reactors before 2030?
27% chance
Will TAE demonstrate breakeven in a fusion reactor before the end of 2025?
10% chance
Will Zap Energy demonstrate breakeven in a fusion reactor before the end of 2025?
19% chance