Will any fusion reactor project demonstrate engineering breakeven before the end of 2040?
23
140
Ṁ5.6KṀ470
2040
61%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Amount
Ṁ0
Ṁ50
Ṁ100
Payout if YES
Ṁ16 +63%
New probability
62% +0.9%
Some people are optimistic about fusion, especially given recent progress. Initial probability is still super low here anyways because fusion power has been "soon" many times in the past.
Engineering breakeven means that the reaction generates enough excess energy to power itself, and is explained in this wiki article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor
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