Will solar become the primary source of electricity in the US before 2040?
Will solar become the primary source of electricity in the US before 2040?
43
1kṀ33552040
75%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
"Primary" means that it generates more than any other method of a similar degree of generality over the course of a year. It doesn't have to be over 50%.
Includes both panels and power towers.
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Should clarify how long a time period solar must exceed all other sources. Data is probably available on a minute by minute basis, or should it be an hour, a day or a year?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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