By 2040, will AI be capable of creating a working Manifold clone to a prompt?
39
190
1k
2040
55%
chance

Constraints
Only human input allowed is explaining necessary opaque things like mana algorithms and such.
It can have some way of viewing the website, but can't look at the source code or inspect source.
It is allowed to be multiple AI systems working together.
1 month time limit.
It only needs to work on localhost.

Resolution
Resolves YES if the end result is 95% fully-featured/functionally equivalent (for features that make sense on localhost), has minimal bugs, and is similar visually, by my subjective judgement.
If no AI system has done this but there's reason to believe there could be a consensus that one could do this, resolves by poll.
If Manifold ceases to exist, resolves N/A.

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Equivalent of Manifold as it was in 2024 or Manifold as it will be in 2040?

@nsokolsky right, I thought I had put that in. The original idea was 2040 but maybe I should make it 2024, who knows what the web will be like in 2040. Wayback machine and/or github history should be sufficient to create a viewing environment.

bought Ṁ5 YES

2040 is 16 years from now. 16 years ago, AI had recently solved checkers, and the best deep learning models were a year out from solving handwriting classification tasks.

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