Presidential DebatesIlya Leaves OpenAII/P - RafahWWDC 2024OpenAI - GPT-4oClose RacesTrump VPWEWHFTrump TrialManifest/LessOnlineNBA PlayoffsFederal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)TwitterDrake v LamarTikTok BanLegal WeedColumbia ProtestsBiden-Trump PollsTaylor SwiftOne PieceMusic AI RaceTV PropsACX 2024 Hard Forkasts

If Trump is president

If Trump becomes President, will he "Make America Great Again" by the midterms? [Gallup Polling > Obama]38% chance
#Conditional markets
#Trump
#US Politics
Will Trump win the US election if he has been convicted of a crime in his January 6th Federal Trial? [10k Subsidy]45% chance
#US Politics
#Politics
#2024 US Presidential Election
If Biden is re-elected President, will gas prices go under three dollars a gallon before the midterms?35% chance
#Conditional markets
#US Politics
#Trump
If Biden is re-elected President, will gas prices stay under four dollars a gallon until the midterms?58% chance
#Politics
#Conditional markets
#Trump
If Trump becomes President, will gas prices go under three dollars a gallon before the midterms?42% chance
#Conditional markets
#Trump
#Politics
If Trump becomes President, will gas prices stay under four dollars a gallon until the midterms?53% chance
#Politics
#US Politics
#Trump
Given the Republican candidate wins the 2024 presidency, will the real median household income be more than $74,580?81% chance
#US Politics
#Politics
#2024 US Presidential Election
Given the Democratic candidate wins the 2024 presidency, will the real median household income be more than $74,580?78% chance
#US Politics
#Politics
#2024 US Presidential Election
If the GOP wins a trifecta in 2024, will a national 6 week or less abortion ban be passed by the midterm election?23% chance
#Abortion
#Law & Order
#Republican Party
If the GOP wins a trifecta in 2024, will a near total abortion ban be passed by the midterm election?27% chance
#US Politics
#Abortion
#Politics
If the GOP wins a trifecta in 2024, will a total abortion ban be passed by the midterm election?22% chance
#Republican Party
#Abortion
#US Politics
If the GOP wins a trifecta in 2024, will a national 15 week or less abortion ban be passed by the midterm election?24% chance
#Law & Order
#U.S. Congress
#Abortion
If Biden is elected President in 2024, how many states will have restricted abortion a year later?
26%
Less than 15 states
19%
15-19
19%
20-24
12%
25-29
See 2 more answers
#Trump
#US Politics
#2024 US Presidential Election
If Trump is elected President in 2024, how many states will have restricted abortion a year later?
11%
Less than 15 states
18%
15-19
35%
20-24
22%
25-29
See 2 more answers
#US Politics
#2024 US Presidential Election
#Trump
What happens if Trump wins 2024 elections? [unlinked, add your answers]
84%
Trump serves full second term
83%
Trump pardons himself (regardless of whether the self-pardon is overruled by court decision)
77%
He gets impeached again.
75%
Democrats win the House majority in 2026.
See 12 more answers
#2024 US Presidential Election
#Joe Biden
#Trump
Conditional on losing the 2024 election, will Donald Trump serve time?56% chance
#2024 US Presidential Election
#Trump
#Republican Party
If Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term?92% chance
#US Politics
#Politics
#2024 US Presidential Election
If Donald Trump is elected, which of his campaign promises will be achieved?
78%
"lower taxes"
71%
"designate cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations"
66%
"put violent offenders and career criminals behind bars"
60%
"REVOKE China’s Most Favored Nation trade status"
See 51 more answers
#2024 US Presidential Election
#Trump
#Republican Party