If Trump is president

4.7k
If Trump becomes President, will he "Make America Great Again" by the midterms? [Gallup Polling > Obama]YES
11k
Will Trump win the US election if he has been convicted of a crime in his January 6th Federal Trial? [10k Subsidy]N/A
1k
If Biden is re-elected President, will gas prices go under three dollars a gallon before the midterms?N/A
1k
If Biden is re-elected President, will gas prices stay under four dollars a gallon until the midterms?N/A
1k
If Trump becomes President, will gas prices go under three dollars a gallon before the midterms?30% chance
1k
If Trump becomes President, will gas prices stay under four dollars a gallon until the midterms?79% chance
130
Given the Republican candidate wins the 2024 presidency, will the real median household income be more than $74,580?81% chance
90
Given the Democratic candidate wins the 2024 presidency, will the real median household income be more than $74,580?78% chance
170
If the GOP wins a trifecta in 2024, will a national 6 week or less abortion ban be passed by the midterm election?20% chance
170
If the GOP wins a trifecta in 2024, will a near total abortion ban be passed by the midterm election?2% chance
210
If the GOP wins a trifecta in 2024, will a total abortion ban be passed by the midterm election?9% chance
110
If the GOP wins a trifecta in 2024, will a national 15 week or less abortion ban be passed by the midterm election?17% chance
270
If Biden is elected President in 2024, how many states will have restricted abortion a year later?
26%
Less than 15 states
19%
15-19
19%
20-24
12%
25-29
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270
If Trump is elected President in 2024, how many states will have restricted abortion a year later?
7%
Less than 15 states
18%
15-19
36%
20-24
23%
25-29
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1.6k
What happens if Trump wins 2024 elections? [unlinked, add your answers]
94%
The U.S.'s democracy index, as measured by the Economist Intelligence Unit, goes down by at least .1 from 2024 to 2028.
88%
Trump pardons himself (regardless of whether the self-pardon is overruled by court decision)
83%
Trump serves full second term
81%
He serves the full term
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1k
Conditional on losing the 2024 election, will Donald Trump serve time?N/A
1.1k
If Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term?72% chance
5.5k
If Donald Trump is elected, which of his campaign promises will be achieved?
91%
"defend your Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms"
89%
"end catch-and-release, restore Remain in Mexico, and eliminate asylum fraud"
88%
empower the President to impose reciprocal tariffs
82%
"lower taxes"
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