What happens if Trump wins 2024 elections? [unlinked, add your answers]
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26
2.2k
2030
86%
Trump pardons himself (regardless of whether the self-pardon is overruled by court decision)
84%
Trump serves full second term
79%
Democrats win the House majority in 2026.
77%
He gets impeached again.
72%
Democrats win Senate majority in 2026
64%
The U.S.'s democracy index, as measured by the Economist Intelligence Unit, goes down by at least .1 from 2024 to 2028.
50%
The S&P 500 will be above 5000 at the end of 2024
49%
His VP becomes the Republican presidential nominee in 2028.
45%
he has a fatal or near-fatal health issue while in office
45%
Does not relinquish power at end of term, if still living
39%
Ukraine war reaches a ceasefire that is observed for 1 year
35%
He also wins the popular vote.
24%
The U.S. has a higher World Press Freedom Index in 2028 than 2024.
19%
A national abortion ban is passed during his term.
4%
Biden runs for president again in 2028
3%
Humanity goes extinct anyway, because AI

Answers resolve to YES or NO if the event clearly did or did not happen by the date specified in the answer (2030-01-01 by default). In case it is unclear or controversial whether the event happened, resolves N/A.

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Does not relinquish power at end of term, if still living
bought Ṁ10 Does not relinquish ... YES

Does this include attempts to hold onto power, even if unsuccessful?

@Snarflak it probably does, in a case of a serious attempt.

reposted

This market is illiquidly stuck in 2 options: Trump finishes term and Trump never leaves.

@ClubmasterTransparent could you elaborate that please?

Does not relinquish power at end of original term if still living

@ClubmasterTransparent can you add this as an answer?

@JuJumper yes, didn't mean to put as comment haha

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