What happens if Trump wins 2024 elections? [unlinked, add your answers]
39
1.6kṀ5982
2030
95%
The U.S.'s democracy index, as measured by the Economist Intelligence Unit, goes down by at least .1 from 2024 to 2028.
90%
Democrats win the House majority in 2026.
88%
Trump pardons himself (regardless of whether the self-pardon is overruled by court decision)
83%
Trump serves full second term
81%
He serves the full term
72%
Inflation is higher when he leaves office than when he takes office
65%
He gets impeached again.
59%
Democrats win Senate majority in 2026
45%
His VP becomes the Republican presidential nominee in 2028.
38%
Ukraine war reaches a ceasefire that is observed for 1 year
20%
he has a fatal or near-fatal health issue while in office
20%
Does not relinquish power at end of term, if still living
13%
The U.S. has a higher World Press Freedom Index in 2028 than 2024.
5%
A national abortion ban is passed during his term.
2%
Trump is President on January 21, 2029
1.8%
Humanity goes extinct anyway, because AI
1.6%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is President on January 21, 2029
1%
Biden runs for president again in 2028
Resolved
YES
He also wins the popular vote.
Resolved
YES
The S&P 500 will be above 5000 at the end of 2024

Answers resolve to YES or NO if the event clearly did or did not happen by the date specified in the answer (2030-01-01 by default). In case it is unclear or controversial whether the event happened, resolves N/A.

Sibling market:

Trump
Republican Party
2024 US Presidential Election
Joe Biden
Future US Presidents
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bought Ṁ1 YES

@JuJumper there are some options that can be resolved

@SaviorofPlant thank you, resolved

bought Ṁ10 YES

Does this include attempts to hold onto power, even if unsuccessful?

@Snarflak it probably does, in a case of a serious attempt.

@Snarflak Yes.

reposted

This market is illiquidly stuck in 2 options: Trump finishes term and Trump never leaves.

@ClubmasterTransparent could you elaborate that please?

Does not relinquish power at end of original term if still living

@ClubmasterTransparent can you add this as an answer?

@JuJumper yes, didn't mean to put as comment haha

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