What happens if Trump wins 2024 elections? [unlinked, add your answers]
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ 2024 US Presidential ElectionTrumpRepublican PartyJoe BidenFuture US Presidents
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32
αΉ€3.1k
2030
91%
The U.S.'s democracy index, as measured by the Economist Intelligence Unit, goes down by at least .1 from 2024 to 2028.
86%
Trump pardons himself (regardless of whether the self-pardon is overruled by court decision)
79%
he has a fatal or near-fatal health issue while in office
75%
Trump serves full second term
73%
Democrats win the House majority in 2026.
72%
Democrats win Senate majority in 2026
72%
He serves the full term
56%
He gets impeached again.
43%
Trump is President on January 21, 2029
43%
Ukraine war reaches a ceasefire that is observed for 1 year
41%
The S&P 500 will be above 5000 at the end of 2024
36%
His VP becomes the Republican presidential nominee in 2028.
34%
Does not relinquish power at end of term, if still living
23%
He also wins the popular vote.
19%
A national abortion ban is passed during his term.
15%
The U.S. has a higher World Press Freedom Index in 2028 than 2024.
10%
He won 300+ electoral votes
1.6%
Biden runs for president again in 2028
1%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is President on January 21, 2029
1%
Humanity goes extinct anyway, because AI

Answers resolve to YES or NO if the event clearly did or did not happen by the date specified in the answer (2030-01-01 by default). In case it is unclear or controversial whether the event happened, resolves N/A.

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Does not relinquish power at end of term, if still living
bought αΉ€10 Does not relinquish ... YES

Does this include attempts to hold onto power, even if unsuccessful?

@Snarflak it probably does, in a case of a serious attempt.

@Snarflak Yes.

reposted

This market is illiquidly stuck in 2 options: Trump finishes term and Trump never leaves.

@ClubmasterTransparent could you elaborate that please?

Does not relinquish power at end of original term if still living

@ClubmasterTransparent can you add this as an answer?

@JuJumper yes, didn't mean to put as comment haha

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