If Trump becomes President, will gas prices stay under four dollars a gallon until the midterms?
28
๐2752026
70%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves based on the national monthly average gas price, which is currently $3.33 as of market creation. This average has only ever been over $4/gallon in March-August of 2021 and June of 2008.
If Donald Trump is not elected president, this market resolves N/A. If he is elected president, this market resolves YES if average gas prices stay under $4 a gallon between January 2025 and November 2026 and NO if they do not.
Update: We may close this market temporarily around election day to prevent manipulation.
Related:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
Based on this market, I created this conditional market which separates out close elections so that the market becomes useful in determining causation rather than just correlation.
Related questions
Related questions
If Trump wins the election will the inflation rate in 2025 be below 2.5% (Current 2.5%)?
39% chance
If Trump becomes President, will gas prices go under three dollars a gallon before the midterms?
55% chance
If Trump wins, will $DJT (Truth Social) be above $40.00 at EOY 2024?
27% chance
If Trump becomes President, will he "Make America Great Again" by the midterms? [Gallup Polling > Obama]
31% chance
Will US national average gas prices reach $4 at any point in 2024 according to GasBuddy?
78% chance
If Trump is elected President in 2024, will he have an approval rating higher than 50% one year later?
25% chance
How much will cost 1 gallon of gas at the Trump inauguration ?
If Trump wins, will the US suicide rate decrease between his inauguration and the 2026 Midterms?
40% chance
If Trump wins, will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.8 billion tons in 2025?
42% chance
If Donald Trump is elected president in 2024, what will the average yearly inflation be between Jan 2025 and Jan 2029?