If Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term?
83
410
1.1K
2029
77%
chance

This will be resolved based on the last V-DEM classification during his term: https://v-dem.net/

If Trump is not elected in 2024, this market will close NA (all mana returned).

Companion question:

Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:

How does this resolve if Trump doesn't end his term? Whether because he stops being president, he dies, the office changes, or the term limit changes?

Personally I think it would make sense to pin it to the current legal end date of his term, January 2029, regardless of what happens in between.

@Siebe When you say the market will "close unresolved", do you mean it will resolve NA (refunding everyone's mana) or that it will close and remain closed (which locks up mana). Resolving NA if Trump is not elected follows the typical pattern for conditional questions.

@UnconditionalProbability I'll do NA then, thanks!

I have added a companion question

This market shouldn't be allowed unless Trump is already the president.

@YoaaauuIohheee why not?

@Siebe It is a good idea for a market, but you state "If Trump is not elected in 2024, this market will close unresolved." I don't like the idea of a market potentially ending as 'unresolved'

@YoaaauuIohheee I have now added a companion question for if a Democrat is elected. I don't think it since the fundamental issue, which is that it's a conditional forecast, but I hope it helps!

@Siebe If conditional markets' condition is not met, they should resolve 'N/A' (which returns everyones money)

Given the United States isn't a democracy (by design), this seems priced high...

@PaulBenjaminPhotographer Read the description?

@dph121 Also, the US is a democracy. It is also a republic. The two are not exclusive, and people (including academics) do not seriously use the weird, narrow definitions required to make this weirdly persistent old republican talking point true.

Parlay bet for NO:
1. Requires a Trump 47 win. Let's call that 50/50.
2. This /r/democracy political operation continues to exist (very likely)
3. The org's logical action in such an event is taken (virtually certain).
Based on these three variables I'd price it today at 55% yes.

@AndrewSchaefer If Trump is not elected in 2024, this market will close unresolved.

@Siebe good clarification, thank you

bought Ṁ100 NO

The US is not that far from not being considered a liberal democracy. According to the report, the US had a score of 0.74. At 0.70 countries are already considered an “electoral democracy” instead of a liberal democracy.

@Santiago Do you have a source for that being the threshold value? As far as I can tell the classification scheme is determined by the flowchart shown in figure 1 of this article, whereas the LDI is defined in section 2.1.2. of this reference guide and doesn't have access to justice and transparent law enforcement as components, while including the polyarchy value that distinguishes between democracies and autocracies.

Assuming both of these sources are still applicable to the current data, the "liberal democracy index" can go as low as 0.43 while still being classified as a "liberal democracy" (if the liberal component index is 0.81 and the polyarchy index is 0.51) - or as high as 0.84 while only getting classified as an electoral democracy (if the liberal component index is 0.79 and the polyarchy index is 1).

Going by the historical graphs, the US transitioned from an electoral to a liberal democracy in 1969 with improving access to justice and more predictable enforcement (presumably because of the civil rights movement), and it transitioned from an electoral autocracy to an electoral democracy in 1920 (presumably because of women's suffrage).

@dph121 Ah, yeah, that’s probably right, I just did a quick check on the lists.

Here's a report documenting Trump's promises and plans: https://www.authoritarianplaybook2025.org/

There's also the 900-page plan by the Heritage Foundation

He's certainly going to try.