
If Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term?
196
1.1kṀ37k2029
72%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This will be resolved based on the first V-DEM report after his term (i.e. March 2029), which collects data up to and including 2028.'
If Trump is not elected in 2024, this market will close NA (all mana returned).
Companion question:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Who or what will President Trump go after before the end of 2025?
Will Trump finish his second term?
80% chance
How will trump’s second term end?
Conditional on Trump getting elected, how will the US democracy index have changed by the end of his term.
If Trump won the election, Will the U.S. be more democratic in 2025 than it was in 2022?
11% chance
If Trump wins, what will the Democracy Index be for the US at the end of his presidency?
Will Trump's 2nd term be better than his first term (according to historians - tend to be liberal)?
33% chance
Will Donald Trump remain de facto leader of the United States beyond the end of his second term?
10% chance
If Trump doesn't win, will America become a single-party socialist state?
2% chance
Will a liberal justice leave the Supreme Court during Trump's presidential term?
29% chance