This will be resolved based on the last V-DEM classification during his term: https://v-dem.net/
If Trump is not elected in 2024, this market will close NA (all mana returned).
Companion question:
Related questions
@Siebe When you say the market will "close unresolved", do you mean it will resolve NA (refunding everyone's mana) or that it will close and remain closed (which locks up mana). Resolving NA if Trump is not elected follows the typical pattern for conditional questions.
@Siebe It is a good idea for a market, but you state "If Trump is not elected in 2024, this market will close unresolved." I don't like the idea of a market potentially ending as 'unresolved'
@YoaaauuIohheee I have now added a companion question for if a Democrat is elected. I don't think it since the fundamental issue, which is that it's a conditional forecast, but I hope it helps!
@Siebe If conditional markets' condition is not met, they should resolve 'N/A' (which returns everyones money)
@dph121 Also, the US is a democracy. It is also a republic. The two are not exclusive, and people (including academics) do not seriously use the weird, narrow definitions required to make this weirdly persistent old republican talking point true.
@Santiago Do you have a source for that being the threshold value? As far as I can tell the classification scheme is determined by the flowchart shown in figure 1 of this article, whereas the LDI is defined in section 2.1.2. of this reference guide and doesn't have access to justice and transparent law enforcement as components, while including the polyarchy value that distinguishes between democracies and autocracies.
Assuming both of these sources are still applicable to the current data, the "liberal democracy index" can go as low as 0.43 while still being classified as a "liberal democracy" (if the liberal component index is 0.81 and the polyarchy index is 0.51) - or as high as 0.84 while only getting classified as an electoral democracy (if the liberal component index is 0.79 and the polyarchy index is 1).
Going by the historical graphs, the US transitioned from an electoral to a liberal democracy in 1969 with improving access to justice and more predictable enforcement (presumably because of the civil rights movement), and it transitioned from an electoral autocracy to an electoral democracy in 1920 (presumably because of women's suffrage).
Here's a report documenting Trump's promises and plans: https://www.authoritarianplaybook2025.org/
There's also the 900-page plan by the Heritage Foundation
He's certainly going to try.