Conditional on losing the 2024 election, will Donald Trump serve time?
49
447
930
Dec 31
65%
chance

This question wants to answer if Trump's freedom is contingent on presidential immunity or his ability to pardon himself and the question will resolve on the spirit of this query.

YES, he will lose the election AND serve time.

NO, he will lose the election AND NOT serve time.

Resolves NA if Trump becomes president or is ineligible for the presidency because he is already imprisoned or he is dead.

Losing the election is inclusive of any form of not-winning, such as dropping out.

Following, https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/when-will-trump-be-imprisoned, serving time is taken to mean:

  • Prison, jail or house arrest pre-conviction does not count as serving time, must be serving a sentence.

  • Prison, jail or house arrest post-conviction counts.

  • Community service, probation, and other non-custodial sentences do not count.

  • It does not count if he is pardoned or otherwise granted clemency before his imprisonment by the actions of someone other than himself. If say, Trump were convicted but DeSantis were to pardon him, that would not count as serving time.

This market resolves when 1) Trump loses, 2) Trump begins a sentence, or 3) Trump dies. It will be extended if necessary.

I will not participate in this market.

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bought Ṁ150 YES

What's everyone's thinking on this, after the Supreme Court decided to take up Trump's Immunity claim?

predicts YES

The 2x2 market I made on this currently thinks there's an 80% chance he serves time if he loses:

What if he is imprisoned but still eligible to run? Does that count as N/A, or would it be YES/NO depending on whether or not he wins?

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