Harris Trump Debate

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Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?28% chance

How many presidential debates between Trump and Harris (in person) will there be?

0.3%

0 - no debate between Trump and Harris

59%

1 debate

33%

2 debates

7%

3 or more debates

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Will Kamala Harris win the debate against Trump? (based on polls)99% chance

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Who will win (in prediction market gains) in the first Trump vs Harris presidential debate?

1.0%

Donald Trump

100%99.0%

Kamala Harris

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First Trump / Harris Debate prop bets

4%

Harris mentions her history/work of prosecuting sexual offenders

91%

Trump's mic is muted more times than Harris's (0 n/a, tie 50/50)

1.5%

Nate Silver's poll average moves 1 point or more towards Trump a week after debate

8%

Nate Silver's poll average moves 1 point or more towards Harris a week after debate

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First Trump vs Harris presidential debate mention market: which words/phrases will be said?

Resolved

YES

"AI" OR "Artificial Intelligence"

Resolved

NO

Crypto

Resolved

NO

Corrupt

Resolved

YES

"Make America Great Again" OR "MAGA"

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Will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris both participate in a presidential debate hosted by ABC News on September 10th?YES

Will "GPT" be said by anyone in a presidential debate in 2024?8% chance

Who will win the first Trump vs Harris presidential debate, according to Claude on the debate transcript?

4%

Trump

100%96%

Harris

Will Kamala Harris say the word 'weird' in a debate with Donald Trump?6% chance

Will ChatGPT be mentioned in the 2024 US presidential debates?6% chance

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How will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris election odds change 1 day after the September 10 debate?

100%39%

1.5% or more in Harris's favor

36%

1.5% or more in Trump's favor

25%

Neither

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Will Harris debate Trump before the 2024 election?YES

[event has ended] The ABC “Debate:” Who Shows Up?

100%99.0%

Kamala & Trump attend.

0.6%

Kamala attends & Trump is absent.

0.1%

Kamala is absent & Trump attends.

0.3%

Kamala & Trump are absent, or The “debate” on ABC never happens (read description).

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Trump-isms Megamarket: Which exact words/phrases will Donald Trump say in his first debate against Harris?

Resolved

YES

“Billions and billions”

Resolved

YES

“Tremendous”

Resolved

YES

"Make America Great Again"

Resolved

YES

“Many, many”

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How many presidential debates between Trump and Harris (in person) will there be?

0.3%

0 - no debate between Trump and Harris

59%

1 debate

33%

2 debates

7%

3 or more debates

Who will win the first Trump / Harris debate, in my personal opinion?

100%99.1%

Harris

0.5%

Trump

0.4%

No clear winner